Whats your take on the trends by various companies doing the the polls:

By Abiya Ochola

The Steadman Group was on the defensive after politicians and readers took issue with the figures it released in its latest opinion poll.

Curious readers called The Sunday Standard saying the figures from Friday’s poll did not add up.

A casual addition of President Kibaki’s support per province as released on Friday then divided by eight (the number of provinces) showed that Kibaki had scored 39.5 per cent, Raila had 47.6 while Kalonzo had 8.5 per cent.

But Steadman, while releasing the polls on Friday, said President Kibaki and Mr Raila Odinga got 43.3 per cent and 43.6 per cent, an indicator that Kibaki, who had trailed Raila by over nine per cent two months ago, had caught up with the ODM presidential candidate.

There were also questions about figures that did not add up in the provincial vote. An addition of the figures from Nyanza Province showed that some 10 points were missing, making the figures not add up.


141 Responses to OPINION POLLS

  1. Omuto says:

    Am a little bit appalled by the trend in the recent polls, but my heat is boiling on none other than the ODMers themselves, right from the Pentagon to we guys at the grassroots. Let’s not throw stones at Waititu and Wolf, please. There was a time we were leading in the polls, and we gave our take in the same at that time. Some of the recommendations we gave were not taken seriously. Look at the comments that bloggers gave on Nominations – The Fall Out. I wouldn’t wish to dwell much on the nominations issue because we agreed to bury the hatchet and forge ahead. But one thing came out clear, and that is something to do with the interference from the ODM top brass. Justice Kwach scored well below average. We now know that at some point and place, it was infiltrated by our rivals. But our top guns cant escape the blame too.

    Two, given the type of thrashing we received in the last two weeks, it is a miracle that we still remained above the rest. It was baptism by fire and believe me you, we would have scored well below 40%. Thank goodness for some ODMers. They remind me of Liverpool suppoters. Die-hard. No wonder we still have faith in Captain Raila and thus the 43.6%.

    Three, we’re being outdone in a number of things, and publicity is one of those very important issues. Our Pentagon have all of a sudden gone underground, with some of them negatively influencing the nominations and others like Ngilu loudly playing their tribal tunes. Politics is local, yes, but sometimes we go overboard. To such an extent that its being rumoured that Ngilu has quit ODM (Read this weeks issue of the propaganda machine known as The Independent). Honestly, the eclipse is just too much. Kibaki is all over on his ally’s city hoppers, in the print and electronic media. With this kind of laxity in our own campaigns, the drop in polls is inevitable.

    We also failed to counter the MOU propaganda in time, and it ate into us. What happened to our spin doc, by the way? (Dick Morris). Then, which other website do we have if not Raila07 and this blog? What about our arch rivals the PNUs?

    Let us not blame Steadman on this. We too have a case to answer. I’ve just read todays Nairobi Star and if what is being reported is anything to go by, then we need to change tactics. If its true that all major venues have been booked by PNUs upto and including the 25th December, then we need to think faster than what we’re now doing.

    So what I mean is, whether Steadman gives us 90% or 10%, we still need to work over time. WE NEED A STARTEGY FOR EXCELLENT VOTER TURNOUT.

  2. I want to agree with Omuto’s comments posted above. The figures did not add up yes…there was a purpported meeting between Waititu and PNU…Yes…that is politics! The biggest chalenge ODM has is to maintain a tempo and presence! We have been saying this all along. Where is Kabatesi?Where is the experience of Salim Lone? We need a presence that is maintained…the gusto we started with need to be re-introduced…we are doing badly with or without the polls!

    The ODM leaderships is currently looking overwhelmed and confused! How can a whole day end without an activity to be reported in the media when your adversaries are all over the place?

    What happened to press clippings that were used during the refferendum? The one being played by PNU on Raila’s comments about angloleasing in 2002 is helping them gain some mileage! Someone needs to act.

    This part of the stretch needs a personal tpuch by None other than Raila himself…Bado mapambano..usilale ndugu!

  3. charles says:

    relax Omuto…..you have to understand these PNU guys are monied!these guys have paid for all the billboards in the city…..am now told they have booked all the venues over the weekends till election day.ODM is not out of sight by choice…it is all about dirty politics.Our main opponents have vowed to subdue us….

    i believe,the victory still belongs to ODM unless ECK comes to Kibaki’s rescue (rigs in his favourt) in six ways that Dominic Odipo puts it in the Eastafrican standard(todays)

    the steadman guys,have become part of the game..we used to innocently believe their research until we realized they act on instructions from KT secretariat…Steadmans work is simply to show that even though Raila is still in the lead,kibaki is closing in……..this is just to prepare us psychologically for the dirty trick intended to be pulled during election..CHUNGWA MOJA……………MAISHA BORA

  4. tnk says:

    We know the polls are no longer as objective as they should be with questionable and subjective results. Whereas these were useful before the nominations, they are no longer necessary. The situation is that there are several parliamentary and civic candidates on ballot papers, each of these candidates has the means to conduct door to door campaigns to interact with the electorate and register overwhelming support, lukewarm reception or downright hostility. Each will be accompanied by sound reasoning. THey can discern whether the voters are in support of ODM and Raila or not. and if not they can find the reasons. DOM pentagon need to strategically poll their popularity individually throuhg these candidates and evaluate the next plan of action. The truth is PNU cannot gain any more ground based on propaganda or goodies being dished out. Their only hope right now is sepnding millions to either completley buy out voters or cripple the process. ODM needs to reach out to all the provinces and at this point, they can get more new votes in Central as well. Show the people in Central the 1B dollar lunch bill and ask them how this cash has ever benefitted them. Back to the issue, I think Steadman and the other pollsters are retreating into a corner that they may never come out of. ODM wins this election lets start by tearing up and exposing these frauds for what they are. But that aside ODM needs to hit the campaign trail fiercely knowing full well that the media and almost all other insitutions are hostile. THank God for the few honest police officers who still carry out their duties diligently to protect ODM candidates.

  5. McJairo, Hiroshima says:

    Polls are showing a trend of things. The messege is not so much of what parcentage we have, but where we are headed. Yes we may have problems with Steadman, for one or two shortcomings, yet we forget that from the look of things “all seem not well in the ODM house”. As of now we just read between the actions and lines. Poited from the poll is a need to reinvigorate our campaigns.

    Secondly, now that we are collaborating with Mme Ngilu, what is wrong with inviting her NARC candidates into a joint meeting with those of ODM and the Pentagon, atleast those who have pledged to support the ODM? Election is a very serious matter but it is not war with blood. We retain some degree of friendship. It would be tricky for us to lose contact or support of Mme Ngilu, soon after losing Jirongo
    It would be my prayer that as soon as we are through with meeting the ODM candidates you organize a joint meeting of ODM/NARC candidates so as to cement the relationship between both parties. Mme Ngilu, though a leader of NARC is a member of the Pentagon.

    I would advice in the same line that road shows be held in all major Towns. The particiapants in the roadshows to be ODM/NARC candidates from the area accompanied with at least one Pentagon member. This will solidify our support and show us as a mighty team. While also showing that we accommodate even opponents

    This will be a big psychological coup on our opponents who have sent away theirs.

  6. Erick Agwanda says:

    I think most of the opinions here are true. I dont know why the ODM team are so quite while kibaki has been campaigning all over. Lets get our act together and show these corrupt lot that power lies with the people. I think just as they are doing to us I am sure they too have a dark past to be revealed starting with kibakli himself coming down to his foot solders. But not to worry at least I am not panicking and I urge you fellow Kenyans not to panic because victory is here with us. We just need to go out there and vote in our numbers. I know tomorow Our team will hit the road so dont you worry. As for their adverts it only annoys us instead of changing our minds since they’ve had five years and have not prosecuted Mudavadi. For Ngilu, please understand her she needs to go to parliament to be politicaly relevant and so she needs to sing kalonzo a bit if you know what I mean (The near fanatical support kalonzo enjoys in ukambani. Tuju is facing that kind of an uphill task.Remember the only way we can help Our president _ Raila of course is to GO OUT AND VOTE IN LARGE NUMBERS.ODM for REAL CHANGE.God Bless ODM God Bless KENYA.

  7. Phillipo Ondako Maina says:

    wananchi watukufu,iam one person who abhors violence till and when iam proveked into into.can the so called brigadier and eck tell us why they should maliciously allow one party to book all public venues?if and when ODM wants to storm any of those venues please ask for my support.

  8. Gerald says:

    Its clear that the so called steadam credibility is gone and i believe kenyans who are informed know what am taking about.even after taking 10 points from his stronghold he is still leading and the wolf has the guts to tell us that they are neck to neck yet it’s clear they have been bought.
    they have booked all the venues so that no politial party except panua makes head way in nairobi coz nairobi and coasto ndio swing votes.
    with all the dirty tricks no one stop ODM


    as for the opinion polls steadman sholuld realise that when you lie you dont mention any truth.why bother to tell us that Raila leads in 5provinces yet he ties with kibaki.lets give kibaki central and Raila cancels out with Nyanza & Western combined,then give kibaki Nairobi which Raila cancels out with Coast,now even without thinking hard alead of 10% in Riftvalley is enough to cover kibaki’s advantage in eastern and keep some change.

  10. Abok says:

    We should not comfort ourselves on the integrity of the opinion polls, lets analyse their effects begining with what message the polsters intend to pass and the effect of their message on the voter after which we should act to counter them on this. Many have suggested ways on how to counter the effects and I cant agree more. I would not recommend that we take the blows thrown at ODM lying down, of course we accept they have the money, but we must have a strategy to counter that by deploying other tactics. For example, I read over the weekend in the papers that ODM has resolved not to engage in smear campaign, that is great, now we need to pass that message to reach the widest audience. It will make those who are engaging in smear campaign not appeal to the voters.

  11. otiff says:

    The opinion polls whatever they express should be a wake up call the Orange House…infact i really dont know whats happening. We were promised mother of all campaigns and am yet to see it. One thing for sure is that this election is going to be won on propaganda and how smart with yours will carry the day. If Orange house lacks propaganda machinery they should consult far and wide. People have gotten used to things like Anglocing and the likes. The image being created by the gutter and the main media houses is not very good for the party. You need to counter this by your own channel..Please strategise and campaign as if Waititu and the likes do not exist..and Kenyans will know the truth…..AND truth shall prevail..

  12. Zack says:

    Spreading some too that I found…

    A Disturbing new story has emerged from the Kibaki’s birthplace in Nyeri,Kenya. Its a story never told before about the reason for the death of Kibaki’s father. Mzee Karauri,speaking to a news reporter in Nairobi in November said that one day in the 1980’s,Kibaki had hatched a plot to kill the then president Daniel Moi. A bomb had been placed in a chartered Kenya Airways plane that was to carry the president to a meeting in Ethiopia. Kibaki was responsible. Moi,who had an airtight intelligence network got hind of this plot.

    The former president was known to hit back hard when betrayed. He announced at the last minute that Kibaki represent him in Ethiopia. Kibaki was terrified. He badly needed a reason not to travel to Ethiopia,and it better be a good one. At about the same time,his father was ailing at a village in Nyeri. Kibaki is reported to have began a well executed plot that ended up with his father being killed. He then called Moi to inform him of his “loss”.

    Cosequently, Kibaki escaped by sacrificing his father. The bomb was defused, but from then on, Kibaki knew that he owed Moi his life and that he would do Moi’s bidding. That’s why Kibaki willingly split Kikuyu votes in 92 at Moi’s bidding, this was supposed to be the payback for the attempt on Moi.

  13. Zack says:

    Spreading some too that I found from …

    A Disturbing new story has emerged from the Kibaki’s birthplace in Nyeri,Kenya. Its a story never told before about the reason for the death of Kibaki’s father. Mzee Karauri,speaking to a news reporter in Nairobi in November said that one day in the 1980’s,Kibaki had hatched a plot to kill the then president Daniel Moi. A bomb had been placed in a chartered Kenya Airways plane that was to carry the president to a meeting in Ethiopia. Kibaki was responsible. Moi,who had an airtight intelligence network got hind of this plot.

    The former president was known to hit back hard when betrayed. He announced at the last minute that Kibaki represent him in Ethiopia. Kibaki was terrified. He badly needed a reason not to travel to Ethiopia,and it better be a good one. At about the same time,his father was ailing at a village in Nyeri. Kibaki is reported to have began a well executed plot that ended up with his father being killed. He then called Moi to inform him of his “loss”.

    Cosequently, Kibaki escaped by sacrificing his father. The bomb was defused, but from then on, Kibaki knew that he owed Moi his life and that he would do Moi’s bidding. That’s why Kibaki willingly split Kikuyu votes in 92 at Moi’s bidding, this was supposed to be the payback for the attempt on Moi.

  14. Zack says:

    Spreading some too that I found from someone…

    A Disturbing new story has emerged from the Kibaki’s birthplace in Nyeri,Kenya. Its a story never told before about the reason for the death of Kibaki’s father. Mzee Karauri,speaking to a news reporter in Nairobi in November said that one day in the 1980’s,Kibaki had hatched a plot to kill the then president Daniel Moi. A bomb had been placed in a chartered Kenya Airways plane that was to carry the president to a meeting in Ethiopia. Kibaki was responsible. Moi,who had an airtight intelligence network got hind of this plot.

    The former president was known to hit back hard when betrayed. He announced at the last minute that Kibaki represent him in Ethiopia. Kibaki was terrified. He badly needed a reason not to travel to Ethiopia,and it better be a good one. At about the same time,his father was ailing at a village in Nyeri. Kibaki is reported to have began a well executed plot that ended up with his father being killed. He then called Moi to inform him of his “loss”.

    Cosequently, Kibaki escaped by sacrificing his father. The bomb was defused, but from then on, Kibaki knew that he owed Moi his life and that he would do Moi’s bidding. That’s why Kibaki willingly split Kikuyu votes in 92 at Moi’s bidding, this was supposed to be the payback for the attempt on Moi.

  15. Felix says:

    It is true that we may have lost some grounds owing to error during nominations but not to that margin. What we should be focusing on now is how to out wit the PNU guys. Yes they have money but when Kenyans are willing, they have no chance. I support the idea of bringing together both NARC and ODM candidates. This will strengthen the party. For sure we know that the nomination was a scam and without doing this, we are committing suicide. I was in Kisii last Wednesday and i could sense people are so dishearten by nominations errors. I sincerely hope that the Team charged with campaign planning is not as confused as election board was. We need to visit Kisii big time and reassure our supporters there that we are still strong. The complaint i heard was that ODM decided to take weaker candidates. Forget about steadman and Focus on educating people on the ground how to vote and guard the votes during counting.

    Am told that half of the money collected during luncheon is going to Langata. We are talking of 500M. We need to safeguard these votes and let these people know that they will be selling their birth rights.

  16. dennisk says:

    it is a clear indication that the steadman people have been compromised (or perhaps they werent very good at elementary math in school) however, and i agree with omuto 100%, what bothers me is that odm as a party constantly fails to read the signs and rise up to the challenges of political battle.in this game, like in love and war, all’s fair. truth be told, while the poll is certainly designed to favour the incumbent, we have lost ground. this is unacceptable for the simple reason that it could have been avoided. where are the ground troops? its becoming increasingly frustrating for me, as a supporter, to try and justify the inaction at the secretatiat. the p.n.u/moi coallition is a deadly, experienced and moneyed force. we need to be a little more creative.. if those mandated to do the job are incapable of it, we have very willing and able spin doctors of our own right here on this forum. think about it.

  17. Nickie says:

    Well, the polls are out, whether they are reflective or not is not a big issue although the latter seems to be true, ideally on the ground there is so much support for the ODM its massive and passionate. One thing that we cannot match the PNU is CASH money the billboards are just too much and the publicity is at an all time high, do we remember the swahili saying” kizuri chajiuza kibaya chajitembeza” if they are that good enough why are they jiuzaring!, we know very well Kibaki is not sure of reelection, anyone who has followed the just concluded Australian Polls will note that, the incumbent John Howard campaigned on the economic gains and low unemployment and even tried to depict the situation that the Labour(Opposition) will ruin the economy! anyway the rest is history, He lost! we can draw parallels to ours here, Let the ODM simply pass the message of generational Change and that will be it, Its kenyans who make the Economy grow not a person in the name of a president. Otherwise polls are just that Polls!


    hiyo story ya Zack ihave heard it before but icant comment further,if true then the angels should be waiting at the gates of heaven with abiiiiiiiiiiiiiiiiiiiiiiiiig no entry sign


    about the campaign strategy ithink Raila should clear the Muslim pact thing since now the noise makers have slowed on it and we now have half of the church behind us.and by the way what is the big deal when the minority present their agenda,just like we have the girl child education issue and the pastrolists.
    infact the christians should come up with an agenda and ask the candidates to commit themselves to it.
    Raila also needs to make an advert to respond to the pnu nonsense on goldenberg(ican give advise on that) he actually suspected Mudavadi but acommission was set up which cleared him,and the culprits were found to be Saitoti,Moi and Pattni who are all in and around pnu.cant these fools learn to respect the law process(Mudavadi should sue)
    what if we made asimilar advert on Kroll report and Anglokibaki

  20. pabokenya says:

    hey guys that is gud thing to print our and drop in all churches and streeets the samw way they do with our distorted MOU



  22. Eric B says:

    If we all look at the polls objectively we will notice that Kibaki has 92% in Central while Raila has 86% in Nyanza. Both have 2% in their opposing districts. Now that being the case with the population in Centra, Kibaki will win basically on numbers. The 6% Raila has in Eastern is also a problem too. Let us say there were only two provinces in Kenya (with their current populations) hypothetically. North Eastern and Coast and Raila and Kibaki were battling it out in both. If Raila got say 100% in North Eastern and Kibaki 30% in Coast while the other 60% went to another candidate then Kibaki would still win.

    So my fellow bloggers the polls are indeed indicative of what is really happening. Its not about percentage points but more about numbers. As ODM we should get our points in the Coast, Nyanza, Western and Rift Valley to just about 57%, 90%, 78% and 65% respectively and I assure you we have a healthy lead. Do not dismiss Steadman for doing so means that we will lose the rac. On the contrary let us work hard on thecampaign to reach those targets and you will see a big win. A really big one. The die is cast now and we must rise up to the challenge. I am certain any PNU person reading this will know that it is the truth but we are winning anyway if we get our act right and beleive me we will.

    31 days to the election and I feel the need to ask, has Kibaki packed most of his belongings at State House? If not I suggest he begins to do so fast.

  23. Linet says:

    I saw the polls and questioned and rationalized like anyone else last weekend, then I called my bro in Kericho to find out what was happening over there. I asked him about the locals reaction to the polls. His reply was quite surprising. Unlike what i thought he said people were actually not moved- they thought well let them doctor if they are doctoring or let them drop if its a fact. This only makes the peoples resolve stronger and they are more determined than ever to vote bcoz with opinion polls showing RAO at 53% some would have relaxed that they already won!
    So in addition to correcting all the wrong things in ODM camp right now, pliz encourage people to turn out in large numbers on Dec 27th.
    What I do not u/stand is :
    1) What happened to the person who was responsible for coining all those nice adverts/clips during the referendum?
    2)Why does ODM insist on playing clean when PNU is playing dirty. Nice guys finish last!

  24. Njuguna Kariuki says:

    If Steadman is correct and we work as hard as we can to get voter turnout to 90% we dont lose.

    If Steadman is wrong and we work as if it was true and we work hard and get voter turnout to 90% we win by 60 %.

    So whatever the steadman figure is let us work hard. Focus on swing areas like Coast Province and Rift Valeey. Also intensify campaigns in Bukusu land and Kisii Land to get 90 % of presidential vote and MPS in Nyanza and Western.

    Nairobi is the epicenter of Kenya Politics – lets ensure we stand and solidify our position regardless of the money PNU crooks will pour and dirty strategies they will use. Let us be visible in all TV Stations. Let when my mother calls me and asks me huko mnachagua nani – let me say confidently tunachagua Raila.

    No panicking, no getting tired.

    By the way there is alot of oathing taking place secretly to ensure Kikuyus turnout massively to vote for Kibaki.

  25. Nick says:

    Lets wait for Kivuitus real opinion poll on 27th Dec and they will see dust.If you read yesterday’s standard newspaper, there was an advert by a group calling itself the western something.It was talking about the MOU and the devil worship accusations on Raila among others.It was well drafted and it put my heart at rest about this MOU nonsese.About the pnu nonsense on goldenberg how is that supposed to win them votes?This election should be about what you will do for kenyans.I have seen the advert strengthening the resolve of the ODM members that this pnu people are really bad.Am yet to meet an ODM member who has decamped to pnu here at the coast so i dont know where their improved statistics come from.Coast ni ODM damu


    our coverage is nowadays abit biased.if they dont cover us lets do adoor to door.ihave taken that route,could someone confirm if these administrators read our contributions

  27. Agent4Change says:

    Mr Ondako we do read these comments together with numerous letters and e-mails sent to us,infact just a minute ago our spokesman(ODM) had an extensive view of some of the comments here at the blog

  28. FRED BARRACK says:

    I like u bro and I’ll be happy to see u in the 1st position immediately after the 27th of Dec
    when leading a no. of people including Kibaki. What you need to do is to schedule ua time well and dividing uaselves into groups and then visit different districts b4 ifike the election week.

  29. benjamin says:

    the latest opinion poll that has been calculated as per province and shows Raila leading by 47.6% against Kibaki’s 39.5% WHEN YOU DIVIDE the total provincial percentages by eight is indeed true anyone can try it and i want to add more mathematics so that the readers can understand more. Look at this example let us imagine we are conducting the opinion poll and results is as follows:

    Raila Kibaki Kalonzo
    western province if we take 200 people to interview: 120 70 10
    Nyanza province if we take 250 people 190 55 5
    Central province if we take 420 people 10 400 10
    Rift valley province we take 530 people 270 200 60
    Coast province we take 160 people 80 50 30
    Eastern province we take 190 people 5 125 60
    North eastern province we take 50 people 31 16 3
    Nairobi province we take 190 people 75 70 10
    TOTAL 781 986 188

    If we divide the total number of individual canditate support over tha overall number of people interviewed which is 1,955 then each canditate will have these percentages
    Raila = 39.95%
    Kibaki= 50.43%
    Kalonzo= 9.62%

    but if we first calculate each canditates percentage in every province e.g lets take western province with 200 people Raila will have 60% Kibaki 35% and kalonzo 5% that is we took Raila support 120 and divided it by 200 to get the percentage.If you do that and then add the total percentages for each canditate in all the 8 provinces(DO IT FOR YOUR SELF) you find the following results
    Raila = 44.04%
    Kibaki = 45.52%
    Kalonzo = 10.43%

    therefore the winner who was Kibaki has his total percentage reduced and the others have there’s increased.So if the steadman poll released we calculate that by province Raila got 47.6% and from our example we find that the overall total should be higher than the provincial total for the winner e.g kibaki had overall 50.43% and it was reduced to 45.52% AND YOU CAN TRY THIS WITH ANY VALUES THAT YOU WANT hence we expect Raila to be having about 50 plus overall percentage so that when you calculate the provincial percentage you reduce his while the others have theres increased abit so can any mathematician please dispute and explain this because i tried it with several values and it gave me the same thing that the winner has his OVERALL PERCENTAGE TO BE HIGHER THAN PROVINCIAL TOTAL PERCENTAGE UNLESS THE PEOPLE HAVE EQUAL SUPPORT i.e GETS THE TOTAL PEOPLE INTERVIEWED DIVIDED EQUALLY AMONG CONTESTANT 50 – 50 EQUAL SUPPORT OR ONE CANDITATE LEADS IN ALL PROVINCES. BUT IF YOU DIVIDE THE SUPPORT ACCORDING TO EXPECTED CANDITATE POPULARITY i.e EACH CANDITATE HAS DIFFERENT RATE OF SUPPORT IN DIFFERENT PLACES THEN YOU WILL GET THE SAME ANSWER AS MINE.

  30. NURIA ABDI(from mandera) currently in eastlands NAIROBI says:

    wow wow stead man poll is out and that RAILA has 43.6% yeah i see as we drop from where we were last time but all the same we still lead thought we drop i don’t think RAILA and THE PENTAGON should sleep pull up your socks its 31days to general election RAILA AND THE PENTAGON Should start there campaign earlier we need 100% from NYANZA north eastern 90% and coast 69% western 89% and rift valley 70%.

    where are the pentagon you went to sleep please do something we gonna lose the popularity. do raodshows in all major towns in all the province.



  31. charles says:

    on the Goldenberg advert…………..Raila should make these guys shut up!mudavadi was a suspect but…Bosire Cleared him.all the culprits are with Kibaki and Kalonzo……….kamlesh pattni,saitoti,moi and mutula kilonzo..Raila should infact put them on notice..they will be the 1st to go to jail if they dont return kenyans money within 3 months of ODM government.we can no longer tolerate such kind of nonsense from these PNU fellows

  32. Yego says:

    just to remind the pentagon not to forget about the Suswa declaration, its actually the driving engine of the Rift valley politics.Secondly we now know that the White nile as passed the As- suud swamp and already both white nile and the blue nile (ODM & NARC) must meet at the Tutsi island and if it rains alot in the ethiopian highlands then the water from the seasonal feeder river atbara (kaddu) could be allowed into the major River Nile (ODM) to enable it overcome the occassional cataracts on the way.The destination is well defined and i dont think the thinny sun rays would ever make the waters evaporate in anyway.
    President Raila Sir, the time of small blunders is not now,lets now close the theatre doors and lock out unwanted surgions.You are leading a team of able men and women including the bloggers in these page, they are really wonderful advisors and as the second thief told jesus, dont forget them when you get there.

  33. paul says:

    we should use this thing called 1 million per plate against the pnu to show that only a small percent of those kenyans are the ones who own kenya and kibaki is one of them we should know talk to the poor and the best way is to speake with there stomach when they are sleeping hungry some one else is eating 1 million worth of food we should use this and i sure you people will relate to it, coz most of us canot afford ugali. just show the inequality between the rich who afford 1 million for a plate of ugali and the person who has to survive every day with less than 1 dollar




    why dont the administartor update the newsletter

    in one of the adverts please ask the government why they have bothered in the resumption of railway services to Western Kenya?was is apolitical plot?

  36. Maru Kapkatet says:

    Mr. John Keen said it right. The opinion poll conductors should do their work with professionalism. When you start seeing decimal numbers in ercentage points all of a sudden, then you start wondering whether or not somebody is trying to force a tie and your confidence in the results get eroded.

    While it is acknowledged that Moi was a political strategist who, “like a giraffe saw far”, I am now starting to see some long-term strategies by Kibaki. Kibaki appointed only people from both Northern and Southern GEMA regions to the Ministries of Finance, Education, and 90% of the Provincial Administration and Internal Security.

    In doing so, Kibaki was running a dry test to see how the “outsiders” will react. As it turned out, the tests proved that the “outsiders”, that is non-GEMA Kenya complained and complained, cried and cried, shouted and shoute until cows came home and chicken came to roost and there was not even a dent on his administration.

    Now, Kibaki is decided that if he wins a next term, he will appoint Uhuru Kenyatta as the Vice President and Gideon Moi to the high-profile but safe for the otherwise maligned Ministry of Trade and Industry. In 2012, Uhuru will runfor president with Gideon as his running mate and vice president. David will run for the Othaya seat.

    Gideon could have been appointed to the Ministry of Education like his Dad was but the teachers’ strikes, crowded classrooms, and low qualities could stain his name further. The Ministry of Home Affairs is no longer high-profile as in the days of Gideon’s Dad when he used to give a rude white settler 24 hours to leave the country.

    When Uhuru takes over, Gideon will be the vice president, and David Minister of Finance like his Dad was. In 2017, Gideon will run for president with David as his running mate. By that time, one of Mzee’s grandchildren will be old enough to run for parliament and be appointed Minister.

    The ruling dynasty will have been established in Kenya from the three Kenyan “royal families” – the Kenyatta royal family, the Moi royal family, and the Kibaki royal family. It will be slightly different from the British royal family in that in Kenya, it will be a “committe type or more social type of royal family.

    The billions of Shillings that have already been shipped and safely stored abroad will be used by the descendants to establish the dynasty. For Moi, life could not have been much better than it is now. For Kibaki, it is all smiles knowing that the friend he almost lost because of the Mount Kenya Mafia is now back as the bosom friend he had been for years.

    And to make the sailing smooth for Uhuru, Martha and Saitoti will enjoy the flag only until the next Cabinet is made. Kituyi will not see parliament again although he is now positioning himself to be go back to parliament as a nominated MP. Things will have developed so fast for Nyachae that he will retire before 2012. As for Moody, he is VP only until the time the next Cabinet is made. Afterall, he will not win his Funyula seat which works out well for KIbaki and his plan of appointing Uhuru VP.

  37. Otieno says:


    I appreciate all the hard work you guys are doing. However, I support the idea raised by others earlier that we need to restructure this blog – maybe have a forum since we can still run the blog within the forum. The reason I say this is because lot’s of fantastic ideas are being churned out it’s hard to keep them within the “topic”. For instance, look at the brilliant post above by Maru. This would fall neatly in a thread, say, entitled, PNU’s succession plan. What Maru has highlighted would be excellent to use in our campaigns out there..not only on this blog. So, in order to quickly sort out the ideas generated here, we need to restructure the blog. The restructuring would mean you would have different moderators dealing with the different sub-forums of the main forum. Email notification of new posts in the forums is also dead easy (easier for some people than RSS)

    Just my thoughts…

  38. Jagero says:

    I decided to calculate these numbers the way steadmann would have done them. If you take the provincial percentage for the candidate and multiply by the number of registered voters in the province i.e assumung an 100% voter turn out. Summing up these numbers for all the 8 provinces. Finally dividing by total number of registered voters as a percentage gives you the figures close to steadmans results assuming that Kibaki had 12% in Nyanza.

    The key is to raise voter turn out and recapture our 65 to 70% from rift valley, 75 to 85% from western, 95 to 100% from Nyanza, 55 to 65% from Nairobi and 55 to 65% from coast. Finally 75% from N Eastern. These figures will make it impossible for Kibaki to rig and win.

    It is easy to play around with the provincial percentages but we need to consider the steadman figures as tru and work hard to shame KIbaki and PNU plus all their sponsors


  39. Otsiatso says:

    My take on the polls is no different from anybody’s BUT what we need to read is the ODM Pentagon “body language”. The week that things seemed to have been falling apart, Tinga went abroad, the rest of the pentagon did not panic. That tells me that ODM must have its own pollsters tracking the polls. Whereas the rest of us are shouting that the sky is falling, they are calm. I think they are onto something that the rest of us are not onto. It would be suicidal not to have your own pollsters in this campaign.
    Secondly – the most popular party will win this election. ODM is right now.
    By the way, what is the fascination with Steadman? What of Infotrack and Strategic Research groups’? They use exactly the same method and have been very consisitent.

  40. Otieno says:


    I asked the same question about the other research groups. I like your take on ODM’s “body language”.

  41. tnk says:


    i agree with you on structure, in fact i had such a structure more than four weeks back but did not get response from agent4 change. email me at kayugira@netscape.net and see if we can share some ideas real quick for agent4 change

  42. Otieno says:



  43. Baijo M.Lorowu says:

    Opinion pollls may be wrong or right since the people behind steadman are pnu guys. Let us work hard to campaign and mop out the voters. Raila should also make public the muslims mou to shut up the church guys and others who are busy cheating christians and instilling fear and animosity. i know Raila and his ODM team of leaders are great strategists and clever they may keeping mum on the thing to make the pnu and these liars / propagandaist shout themselves hoarse juts like they did in majimbo issue. The ODM will just take 5 minutes to unleash the truth and at the right time to take wind out of pnu / clergy liars. That will be the day.

    ODM CHUNGWA MOJA MAISHA BORA. Let’s continue campaigning hard to win more voters on our side. Let us tell the voters the truth all the time to make them know that we are for a just society. REAL CHANGE. THIRD AND FINAL LIBERATION. VOTE ODM, RAILA and his team of leaders.

  44. Auki Ollows says:

    Mine remains the same as i have previously said elsewhere. We now have our own guys on the ground – the nominated aspirants. These guys will provide us more valuable info than any pollster would. They know the people, they know the culture. We must remember that Kenyans are very deceptive when confronted by questions from foreigners. There’s no telling for certain what the reality of the pollsters contain. Our aspiring MPs will however feed vital info to the Secretariat.

    I like the idea that Salim is reading these comments. He was a very good choice for the post of Spokesman. His thoroughness will certainly shine through in the Secretariat.


  45. Auki Ollows says:

    And also, PLEASE, do NOT be distracted by the red herrings PONU is throwing our way. We need to be focussed on our game plan. Still, someone must remain focussed, at teh Secretariat, watching them closely and gleaning the HIGH value stuff from them, and determining WHAT needs to be responded to…


  46. edwin kirwa chepkulei dr. says:

    The opinion poll is being manipulated logistically and strategically to potray the lie that ODM is losing in popularity.this is given credence in what people like Mr moi is saying. The truth is that this kind of manipulation is going to continue until close to the election day and the last opinion poll which is expected to potray Mr kibaki to be leading will not be put in circulation in the local dailies but will be left upto the citizens to conclude by themseves as to who is leading in which case this later day propagandists will have completed their paid task by painting a false picture that kibaki is leading in the opinion poll and therefore he will win.

    This is in preparation to rig this years election.the only machine they will use is propaganda using opinion poll as a tool. The ODM should not take this lightly.Kibaki has literally done nothing to qualify for the recent rise in popularity.

    The ODM should be wary and follow cautiosly moi’s movements in rift valley.

    SOMEBODY WILL ONE DAY MESS WITH VOTES IN RIFT VALLEY AND CONCLUDE THAT MOI STILL HAS A FOLLOWING IN RIFT VALLEY >ANOTHER POSSIBLE LIE WHICH CAN BE USED BY AN OPPORTUNIST TO RIG THIS ELECTION. THE only place where rigging is possible is rift valley and opinion pollers are not blind to this reality.THEY have depicted a picture that raila is losing in rift valley.this is abig lie.RAILA RATINGS IN RIFT VALLEY IS NOT 51%.GO TO HELL AND COME BACK IT WILL STILL NOT BE TRUE> they are painting a picture like kalonzo is gaining ground in kerichoand kipsigis land and the reason for the loss in railas popularity in the kalenjin land. THIS is yet another lie.so if raila is losing to kalonzo in rift valley ,where is kibaki gaining in the purpoted surge in popularity. this is where kalonzo candidature becomes handy in manipulating this years election.An inexusable lie to potray him as gaining>He has gained nothing.This is Cheap propaganda.THERE is no regulator for opinion pollers >AND depending on who has bank rolled them they will always serve their masters. and therefore should be entitled to their opinion

    THE kalenjin community listened to moi for half a century,from the time he went to legco in 1955 ,send by NANDI elders .We almost lost everything listening to him.I will not mention what we lost but we stopped taking milk to KCC.WE cannot listen to him again. IT is over.AND WHEN A KALENJIN SAYS IT IS OVER <IT IS JUST OVER..KALENJINS AND PARTICULARLY NANDIS WILL GIVE YOU AN AUDIENCE EVEN IF THEY DONT WANT YOU and our culture does not allow us to rebuke an elder or chase somebody away.>>THIS IS WHAT THE LIKES OF MOI TAKE TO MEAN BEING LISTENED TO OR HAVE A FOLLOWING>

    RIFT VALLEYS VOTES SHOULD BE WELL GUARDED AS IT THE PROVINCE WHEREthe goverment has destined its votes for spoilage,direct rigging etc

    ODM should camp in rift valley and ensure all parliamentary canditates win.it is hard to rig votes after a win by a parliamentary canditate.that is why somebody somewhere wants to destroy the reflective three piece voting pattern.to confuse and steal the price

  47. tnk says:

    Agent4 Change could you open a new thread that allows us to Shred PNU/Kibaki website

    beginning with values

    * Honesty – PLEASE Sir , we all can see how you reneged on promises
    * Respect – sure we all respectfully call each other pumbavu, mavi ya kuku, etc
    * Self Dependency – (yup and just a handful of friends with deep pockets)
    * Work Ethic – absolutely (sleep 4.5 years and then Wham Bam all over the country)
    * Justice – Sure , ref: Michuki, Karua, Artur, murder of youth, etc
    * Patience – (also popularly known as fence sitting or indecision while the house is on fire)

  48. tnk says:

    PNU strategy is horrifyingly sick and is exactly as described in the article below read pages 7 to 9 starting at “resurgent authoritarianism”. These PNU campaigners claim that Raila is bringing in ideology that is counter capitalist and yet they are engaged full length in Communist strategy where all free public communication outlets (media and meeting points) have been completely hijacked.


    THe question PNU supporters need to be asked is why is PNU going out full force to muzzle and block competing ideology. Why not stand for the debate, why are they not giving voters a chance to evaluate the options and choose for themselves. Why the last minute bribes (govt goodies). Why are they tearing posters, blocking ads, spreading propaganda, committing 5b to campaign. The so called devp projects of Kibaki that he has carried out single hand, what are the short term benefits felt by the mwanachi and long term impact.

    Its all lies, no body elected Kibaki to give him a jembe to dig. His job was to fight corruption, usher in change via new constitution dispensation, bring back professionalism in govt service delivery, balance in public appointments all round, address rampant poverty, insecurity and all other issues addresses several times over in this blog. His Scorecard on all these is 0 at best on most topics but mostly negative in that he has taken us backwards. Technocrats in civil service are available in all provinces to do the ground work and devp is not necesarily advanced by a president. Devp is hindered by poor leadership as exhibited during Moi regime where technocrats were reduced to puppets and could not cough without supervision and now Kibaki is doing the same with skewed appointments and resource allocation.

  49. Stephen (Nairobi) says:

    Ladie and gentlemen

    I received this sms last night at about 10.00pm

    ”Govt Printer has just printed posters in Kalenjin depicting Hon. Raila hanging former President Moi & also pointing a gun to his waist. As Govt Printer can’t print in 4 colours, the same were done at Printfast in Industrial Area, near Kenstar/Labour office. They’re being ferried in blue Toyota Saloon KAK 785B and white Nissan Matatu KAK 117Y. They have just been loaded a few minutes ago & are headed 4 Rift Valley”

    Can someone at the secretariat check this out and make noise before they start spreading it, if indeed it has been printed. I guess it’s better to err on the side of caution than to be caught pants down.

  50. charles says:

    yah please can someone at the secretariat take stephens claims seriously.we ahve been on the defensive so much..we are not ready for that again…such propaganda should be pre-empted as soon as now.

    that aside,am so happy atleast i have just seen an updated campaign schedule.we should manage to shake the ground with the little campaign kitty that we have.NINAJIVUNIA KUWA MWANA CHUNGWA!!!!

  51. kip says:

    whats this story that PNU had block-booked all major city venues most weekends between December 1 and 25 just two days to the election. The venues include Uhuru Park, Kamukunji grounds, Nyayo Stadium, City Stadium and the Moi International Sports Centre, Kasarani?

    someone slept @ ODM secretaariat ama nini?

  52. Felix Aduol says:

    Well well. All have been said. Please can you pass this to Pentagon and campaign team. Is it possible to have a small vehicle singing ODM in every ,market in Kenya and an aspiring MP and Councilors addressing supporters and spreading the Gospel Truth of ODM and rebuking PNU. This will not only cab the lies being spread by PNU but will keep ODM ringing in the heads of locals. Let’s rejuvenate the waves that i heard corrupt MOI terming as warning.

  53. Felix Aduol says:

    In my view the secretariat should be reconstituted and mostly left for professionals. Thinking of professionals, why don’t we bring Mutahi Ngunyi in or the likes?. We don’t need election board anymore do we?. Where we are presenting two candidates and one seems week, we should only allow one candidate to go thru. We might divide votes and allow PNU to win. We need a strong government. Remember we need to give kenyans a constitution.

  54. Ben Josiah says:

    Strategy, Strategy, strategy.

    1. Agents for Change! please can you respond to the call to restructure the website. We dont need you to start the threads, we wana start them ourselves, And if you are busy kindly please dont insist to do the job alone. We are the people and we are saying what we want done. Please I suggest you develope something similar to Jukwaa website and you work be only two things 1. Ensure that postings here are in line with ODM dream and Engineer People’s president’s vision . 2 . Responding to all our concerns. Infact you need a 24 hour work environment.

    2. Now Please can you respond to the issues brought up there on PNU booking all the venues in Nairobi? What is the ODM startegy on this? I still believe that Much as Hon Agwambo must remain patient and calm, please let us have young people like KJ,Tony Gachoka,… Orengo and other hardcores organise seriuos road shows in suport of ODM, and protests. Many things needs protests i.e destructioion of billboard, Media house impartiality (KTN, Nation, KBC), Allowing one party to book all the venues in an election month in the capital city owned by all Kenyans..

    By And large Raila is winning this election by based on voter turn out but we dont wanna wait until 27th before we demonstrate that we are actually winning.

    Really truth be told. Just as Kwach slept on the job, someone is sleeping on the Job at the secretariat. But we Love ODM and are spreading the message of Real Change.

    God bless Raila.

  55. Abok says:

    Let ODM take Jamhuri Park for all the weekends till election date and if need be ferry people to that venue whenever required.

  56. tnk says:

    I hope ODM has formed a rapid response unit as sugggested many times in this forum to deal with the crisis such as bro’t up by Stephen.

    ODM should also go ahead and start shouting in all constituencies to be aware and that we have no idea what other propaganda and rubbish that PNU will bring about and everytime such materials surface we then shout “we told you”, this business with PNU propaganda is really getting old and tired (just like the PNU leadership).

    Booked venues and hostile or biased media coverage due to collusion will continue unless firm action is taken. ODM needs to obtain sufficient evidence on the ownership of media houses, their open bias, collusion of steadman and finally stage a demonstration which is highly visible to the international community with huge banners listing all these facts and then burn copies of newspapers.

    PNU may have booked all the major venues, whether they have programmes or not will become evident, so I agree with the suggestion to find alternate venues. On the other hand, its a free country why not just decide to turn up in very large numbers and in Orange and drown every PNU speaker at all these functions and heckle continuously without violence, there is no law against disagreeing with someone. After all we have been called domo so why not put it in action.

  57. faith says:

    for me iam going to tell all the orange brigade out there come out in large number on the voting day we need decisive win and also make sure your fathers,grandfathers,grandmothers,mothers,uncles and aunties go to vote on that day let us not be intimidated that because central has more voters Kibaki will sail through let me give you some stats. in referundum PNU(banana) got around 2.5 million votes take away the bukusu vote,northeastern vote,kissi vote,coast vote and other votes they got here and there and you will see that Kibaki got a paltry 1.7m something votes from GEMA. In 2002 NARC won by 3.6M take away the LUO,LUHYA,COAST,KAMBA,MAASAI,NORTHEASTERN and many more who voted for NARC then you will see that again it comes to just over a million votes do it for 1997 when kibaki was the only canditate from GEMA you will find that again the he got some 1.7 million votes so ORANGE people let us come out in force because Kibaki will have a problem he has to contend with Matiba,Muiru and others from his community who will slice off some support from him so lastly he will hav to contend with the ORANGE which will take also some votes in the greater GEMA areas hence people dont travel or stay at home on that day come out and be counted on the 27th polls GOD BLESS KENYA GOD BLESS ORANGE.

  58. Abok says:

    One other alternative venue is the road. We can have ODM rallies continiously being held on the roads, i.e. Road shows. You cannot stop such rallies and they will be more effective since PNU cannot book the roads too unles they want to say that everything in Nairobi belongs to them. The latest trend in the behaviour of PNU is a habinger of things to come, watch this space.

  59. WIMA says:


  60. Njuguna Kariuki says:

    Kwach slept on the job when we were assured all is well. We have recieved and accepted apologies on nominations.

    Who else is sleeping on the job ? Do we expect apologies on 28/12/2007 ? Do we expect to hear that the communications team was given all the rsources but couldnt perform and hence our lose.

    Do we want to be told that we lost because of PNU propaganda when us we focussed only on saying the right thing ? We dont want to be told we lost because of the MOU or majimbo.

    You cant avoid propaganda in campaigns unless you are campaigning in heaven. We know propaganda will not deliver the Orange dream but, it will be necessary to win the mandate to deliver the orange dream.

    If propaganda is not working why is it that the Pentagon keeps on defending itself against all the maligning propaganda ?

    Dont betray us Pentagon and Secretariat.

  61. Mo Mawira says:

    I think Njuguna has hit the mark with his comments that there should be no excuse as why the ODM board did not deliver. They had the resources and the time to prepare. What if Kivuitu turned up on 28th Dec and said that ODM had won, but because his team was overwhelmed with the job, they gave the victory to PNU? In Kenya, this kind of excuse is one thing we must not condone. Let Kwach and his team resign or the Pentagon should sack them. We expect that when and not if Raila forms the next government, people who do not deliver will not stay in the office one day to even ponder where they made the mistakes. Let Kwach and his team be dismissed by the Pentagon as an indication that it will not be business as usual when KAzi itaanza mpya. Kudos to Njuguna and I hope like me, he has kept his vote for RAILA AMOLO ODINGA

  62. MUNASE MULAMA says:

    Avoid responding to all that PANU people are saying unless it is a must and about oppioion polls forcus on your campaign and for now move as team don’t spread yourselves.
    If possible have more media coverage which seems lacking now and road shows in big towns. Have big shows in KAKAMEGA, KISUMU,NAKURU,MOMBASA AND NAIROBI ON THE LAST WEEK.
    About transport to western arrange extra Buses for these people may remove their Buses going to yours stronge holders and if possible can book a train to kisumu and BUNGOMA.

  63. Akinyi says:

    ODMers, please lets make the MOU public its making my life dificult to convince my christian brothers and sister especially the Born Again. We had their support but its drifting towards ODMK. Please make it public its doing our party no good and this was reflected on the opinion poll especialy in Nairobi province. Last week was a disaster, Raila was no where to be seen, somedays ODM did not feature on TV at all. Lets have some activity in Nairobi very urgently.
    RAILA TOSHA na kazi ianze sasa

  64. pabokenya says:

    pliz ODMers, lets look at bumpy road with confidence.
    we need act with confidence. some of us are very discouraging that i wonder if u could survive an onslaught from panu ple.lets start acting and behaving like WINNERS’. winners find bumpy roads ahead, they look for ways of going forward not passing the back.

    in football, sometimes u have to allow a team to attack then u counter attack, thats why ASERNAL always wins when they win, and rarely loose when they are on a winning streak, coz they behave and act like winners

  65. pabokenya says:

    this panua ple are dirty, they dont care about campaigning coz they have no issues, they can only propagate things,thats how they survive in the limelight.
    we ODMers, sud also be hitting at them with the same venom.however, we must shield our pentagon form personal attacks.lets look up and convince ple why voting for raila is the best thing.for me, i have been able to stand up to any panau propaganda here in the diaspora, they now me majimbo man, u know why i tell them the truth.

    i some from gwasii const, yet in my whole const., theere is no tamarcked road, how can somebody form mbsa,nyeri,bungoma,pokot or n estern no which road is important to us and the one that needs to be tarmacked first?
    its the fishmongers at the village, the teachers there, the chief, who understand that, thats why i iam very convincing and all panua ple agree with me, the only thing i dnt understand well is our mou with muslims, i have neither recievd the original or the distorted one, so that i can base my arguments on truth.but i know they are so scared of us and that they are not SLEEPING.

  66. Ayoo Tsunami says:

    ODMers should not panic,as Ken Matiba said;MUNGU YUKO…..

  67. victor says:

    The steadman polls may be or may not be a reflection of whats in the grassroot but let us remember that ODM is a party under attack day after day…..This means that as we head to the finishing line they should lay everything on top of the table to make everything as transparent as possible. They are some things that will cost us dearly and the records should be set straight…If the talk that is going round is to go by, then….Hon Raila….Pentagon…..please stand up. Even if its the alleged Muslim MOU bring it on table…the damage will be intense if the wait continues….about majimbo thats a gone issue…am definately sure that this is just politics- if the other parties had put it first in their manifestos they would be silent. ODM we have come a long way and lets not loose focus. Lets preach peace, accountability and more so put God first

  68. Wayodi says:

    There is been no visible campaign in Mombasa either! why not organize a roadshow as the support here (Mombasa) is overwhelming lest your supporters lose hope. Rise up ODM campaign team and keep the fire burning. Remember in the electioneering period what matters is action. Stop being on the defensive as there is no time for such. Forge ahead and tell people what they want to hear. PNU has never at any one point defended themselves on any issues raised. Remember we are told “Kazi iendelee” yet most of the major roads are in a sorry state (almost impassable). The insensitivity of the incubent govt say alot more- the violence that has rocked part of Mt Elgon region is nothing to them. Kibaki has been operating like a pendulum between Nairobi and Mombasa in the name of campaigning. Are these two places the only ones in Kenya? Why has he never traverse the vast Nothern part of Kenya?

  69. Felix Aduol says:

    Soon they will Book all the advertisements spaces in all stations. Woo unto ODM angels. You can only be an angel in heaven. On earth no way. If it goes dirty, you get more dirty. Otherwise attitude of gentlemen might be ODM undoing unless properly administered. Be dirty is a gentle way i.e negate all PNU actions against ODM

  70. Felix Aduol says:

    Just copy its content and paste it

  71. Auki Ollows says:

    Well, I think yesterday’s rapid response on the posters on the way to Rift Valley was an indication of what committed action can achieve. A blogger on this site has shown how rapid action, with the help of Kass FM, ensured that the sms Stephen received was acted on, long before the posters appeared…

    I also want to disagree STRONGLY that we should keep piling the blame on Secretariat for the booked venues. We have the gun on the wrong target. We can’t book venues before we know we are going there. This is simply a clear attempt by PUNU to obstruct the constitutionally guaranteed FREEDOM OF ASSEMBLY. Constitutional matters are grave! They aren’t dependent on admin issues or ability. PUNU books the venues before knowing what to do with them. RIDICULOUS! This is the point at which we appeal to the president to act as Head of State to protect guaranteed freedoms. If not, then we are left with no option but civil disobedience. We are left with no option but to hold our rallies on the Kenyan roads etc.

    We MUST NOT coil our tails and accept injustices. We must be ready to FIGHT for our rights. Sovereignty is protected by The People.

  72. Chepkwony(Kericho) says:

    PNU and Moi’s brigade are on all out war using any means to win even if it means doctoring opinion polls. However, we need to use these opinionated polls to prepare for the titanic war ahead. Let’s have every available arsenal at our disposal in order to counter them. They have money but we have heart full of determination.
    By the way they are even using the Provincial Administration to coerce voters. “Kapkatet II” is about to be held at Kericho and for them to make it look like a success, they have given every chief & assistant chief money to ferry people from all over the Kericho. If this is not infringing on the Elections Act then why threaten any chief who defies this order and fails to ferry passenger voters.
    Another panic mode is using pretext of “security Concern” to ban us in Kericho from meeting at certain times of the day.
    Despite all these; the ORANGE is right inside us and NOTHING can remove it from us not even their dirty tricks.

  73. FRED OGALO says:

    why do i have the feeling that this blog is full of whiners?starting from the nominations fiasco to the disorganized seretariat to our drop in opinion ratings. guyz,31 days isn’t such a long time.instead of concentrating on the negatives let’s stop the finger pointing and blame games. we can do that after the victory coz we still have a party to build.for now lets’s give ideas that can help like the way stephen did with the leaflets.if we were to do this am sure we could have known about the bookings before they occured.now is not the time to whine about mistakes.lets be true soldiers of democracy and freedom and suggest how to counter these misttakes that have occured.like it is said,’even thorns have roses’ so concentrate on the brighter side of the problems.

  74. Otsiatso says:

    Wana chungwa, calm down – if [IF because it is still a rumor] PNU booked all the venues – that is not bad news that is good news for ODM. It reminds people of KANU and Moi and all the dirty tactics they used to deny people democratic voice, and after tasting that, Kenyans are not willing to give it up.
    The Secretariate has the brains to use that to our advantage. So calm down wana chungwa. I actually hope PNU keep doing dumb stuff like that. WaKenya wame chanuka.

  75. zizi says:

    i talked about whining the other day. I think it is time to stop. Winners look confident. they don’t here and there. We all got the responsibility to move the campaign foward. I do not think Pentagon and the secretariat will want a loss. It is my humble opinion that we go back on issues. For instance, why should we not concetrate on Printer saga just talked about. What are the dangers of such propaganda? We need to make such issues our focus. I think it is good to talk about booking of venues but focus it on PNU as wanting to muzzle democratic space. If Kenyans knew that such are the tactics of PNU they wouldnt want to be associated with it. How can we let the issue of weapons in the minister’s vehicle slide away from blog discussion. Please let us re-focus. Be inspirational. You know the journey to the promised land was marred with whining. Only a few faithful managed to get there. What are the strenghts of Raila? The only revolutionary remaining in Kenya. We need him tio bring that revolution. Bloggers, let not the enemy have a reason to be more confident. We are winning and that is what I want. I know that I am weak, but I will maximise on my strengths to make sure ODM wins.

  76. Omuto says:

    Who’s this former MP in Bungoma who was intercepted by police and caught pants down with crude weapons? Forget about Wanjala raphael. This is a new fellow. Anybody with information?

  77. pabokenya says:

    we are coming, ODM is coming, let the panua ple hide

  78. pabokenya says:

    omuto the guy is wakoli, if u need to know

  79. pabokenya says:

    so lets us solidate our gains and be winners

  80. pabokenya says:

    from what i have gathered here, we are so scarred and i like the passion our ple have to winning. we know that winning is the only prize we are fighting for.

    men, i wanna urge u guys with the microscope from the diaspora, the war has just begun,

    if ur scared, run to the mountain coz the tsunani gona sweep u, these loud mouths can only win in central, they will be locked out in all provinces, so lets look ahead and bid our time.

  81. Ben Josiah says:

    Ladies and gentlmen. The actual Steadman Report is out. From extremely reliable source within stadman themselves. And it is juicy and confirming Raila’s giving Kibaki the taoughest fight of his life.

    I dont know how to send to ODM original members. Any idea. But in a nutshell, the report released by steadman was not the real report. The actual Report hold Engineer Amollo at 56% Hon Kibaki 33% Hon Kalonzo 9%.

    Drop mail at benn.josiah@gmail.com so that I can send the same.

    God bless Raila.

  82. paul says:

    > Hi All,
    > I saw this message and really felt angry of the Kikuyu insult and arrogance towards other tribes. Hope this attitude will never see the light of the day by 29th December 2007. Enough is enough and this arrogance must end. Will never remove Kikuyu without voting. You MUST VOTE!!!
    > “”””””””@@@@@$$$$
    > We Kikuyus get loud nonsense from other lazy tribes who can’t do anything given chance to lead this country. Can we Kiuks work hard to remain in State house and show other loud mouth tribes how to rule and get rich. We only need another ten years to get home and dry. Money rules the World and Righteousness rules Heaven. How will a beggar lead rich and hardworking Kikuyu in the name of change and democracy? Let other tribes make loudest noise when we invest in Safaricom, KenGen, Lake Victoria, Mombasa port, etc.
    > What will a Kalenjin tell Kikuyu? Nothing, because for 24 years they ran this counrty down to the knees. Look their children are now on free education; thanks to a one briliant Kikuyu man; Luos are just confused stone throwers, we will give them stone to throw in lake victoria and eat fish or fises; Luhyas and Kambas look after their stomachs no less; give them some food and will follow Kibaki enmass. Coast people are hopelessly full day gossipers, laziest. Will these chacters make state house material.
    > It is our time, Moi frustrated us for 24 years and with the wealth and numbers we have if we can’t hold on power we are better dead. Other tribes hate us because we are progressing so don’t bother at all. We are the engine of this Country and Kibaki knows it well.
    > Tell other tribes to hold their horses for 100 years suppose they want to living in heaven on earth. You must do everything at your disposal to retain power. Raila is the threate, make sure he never see inside parliament again forget about presidency. Kalonzo is a friend to Mzee and state house just fooling Raila and anti-Kikuyu activists, Muiru is ours.
    > Yours,
    > Ngethe Kamau
    > Kikuyu by Nature

  83. Philip (The visitor) says:

    pabokenyaaaa PABOKENYA! Can you hear me. Thanks you have just sound the warning. Please go ahead and tell others. When I woke up today in the morning I saw the signs. THE TSUNAMI IS COMING! LET’S GET OURSELVES PREPARED.

  84. VICTOR says:

    Ngethe Kamau
    > Kikuyu by Nature


  85. Simon says:

    Let us put it in our mind that Steadman is right. This will make us campain without ceasing. But at one point we were at 53%, what made us drop? We dropped because of PNU propaganda. We need to churn propaganda and be good in defending ourselves from their propaganda. I have a feeling there is a bit of disconnect at the communication centre in orange house.

  86. pabokenya says:


  87. charles says:


  88. krys says:

    Is it true that Livondo’s Id No is 10694331 coz I checked the number in the eck website and it truly indicates that it belongs to a lady. Could someone please confirm so that I can start rallying the masses to denounce this illiterate puppet!!

  89. tnk says:

    1. there is a fine line between whining, and loudly voicing concern. we odm bloggers, express our concerns and having articilated our issues, resolve the same through this forum. Call it domo call it whining call it whatever. We self evaluate, correct and move on.

    2. the article by ngethe is exactly what racist white societies say about africans. the pinnacle of bigotry and empty heads who can only hide in a “like” crowd to hide and mask their own gross and severe incompetencies.

    Any competent person cannot resort to bigotry in any form and so I know the competent Kenyans reading that crap will trash it.

  90. Otsiatso says:

    That hate e-mail by Ngethe is precious – leave it there , what a motivation as to why Kenya needs change. In fact even better, copy and paste it to other Kenyan listservs.

  91. James says:

    I think it is now time to start letting kenyans know the cost of a kibaki win. We always say what we will do when we win, but we need to let people know what it will be if we loose. The kales, luos, maasais, coasterians, the muslims wherever they are, the luhyas, the kisiis, kambas, kurias, pokots, turkanas and anybody who is percieved to be anti-kibaki will be in for a ride. I pray everyday to the ALMIGHTY to kindly save us. God helps those who help themselves. Our way of helping ourselves now is to make sure every vote counts, every ODM vote gets to the ballot box. If you sons and daughters of GOD do this, victory will surely be ours. The message from now on is get out and vote. Travel to where your polling station is. Make sure every voter in that polling station who supports us gets to cast his/her balot. And that dear brothers and sisters is my solemn request. Blog on, but also strategize and deliver. The votes count, not our submissions here. these should make us deliver better. Thank you.

  92. James says:

    I think we need to sue the registrar to show up in courts to tell us whose ID No. is that. This is our way of winning the first seat in parliament. If he gave a wrong ID number then surely he must be disqualified. I doubt this guy is a kenyan, he couldn’t surely seek to torpedoe the real change he himself knows kenyans are lloking for by such uncouth means like hiring horses, disenfranchising voters

    Not that I’m really bothered of Livondo, he has no chance in hell even if he buys votes with the entire PNU budget. Let us inform our supporters all over the country who could have sold their votes to go and replace them. It is entirely possible to replace a lost voter’s card upto the 24th of December, I replaced mine last elections on the 24th of december 2002 and it took 20mins. Go replace your voters card and accessorize appropriately for dec 27th.

  93. Eric B says:

    Forget about Livondo guys. The fellow is losing and even he knows it. To PNU, we are coming. I am informed that guys in State House have began packing up which is a good thing. We hope to find the place spic and span come 28th of December. Perhaps you can store your stuff in some of the venues you have booked.

    Maisha Bora indeed it is!!!

  94. kube says:

    1. corruption- give each person who contributed millions for his campaign cahnce to recoup their losses
    2. tribalism- since we will only het mps’ from mt k, all ministries to one region
    3.insecurity-mungiki,mt elgon,molo continue unabated
    4.Not giving us constitution forever- we continue with the same then UHURU also use the same
    5. creating job opportunities for the youth- only from MT kenya, RINGERA TO BE AG AFTER SUCCESSFULLY FAILING TO CAHRAGE ANYBOBY WITH CORRUPTION
    6. poverty level TO BE increased – only ple who can contribute millions will be allowed
    7. Price increment of vital commodities e. g sugar wheat flour which are Kenyan products
    8. Atur brothers to come back to clear all potential threats to UHURU.

    9. Recycling old men on job appointments while youths are just watching. Your government has no retirement age.How old is ….you know them.
    10.start another anglo fleecing in the name of safaricom

  95. Rono says:

    we will beat kibaki to his knees.Steadman owned by Joe wanjui should not pretend to be the only ones who knows statistics, on the propaganda, we in the rift valley do not mind about what happens to moi, instead of the guy retiring and being non-partisan he wants to use us kalenjins to protect his wealth and his ill mannered children, we have suffered from the perception that we benefited from his misrule, so whether anybody hangs moi is not campaign issue here, kila mutu apepe mosiko yake, we will vote raila in since the ondingas have been fighting for independence since indepence, Raila is also somebody’s child and for moi and PNU to pretend that theirs are only children and demonise him is pagan.Finally, moi has no justification whatsoever to back kibaki now and that why the guy can never give an informed reason for his choice except to propaganda and demonise ODM, can he also tell us what PNU is. Let us not forget that Kibaki’s last term will be tragedy for this country and all the other tribes will have to sit on the sidelines since only the mountain will be calling the shorts.

  96. Rono says:

    sorry I forgot a burning issue, we want to support a viable root, so we want the odm people to vote to the last man, especially the nyanza guys, get seriuos and stop throwing stone and drinks, infact I recommend that drinking be burnt by people themselves for 3 days, 25, 26,27 and 28 so that we do not have someone forgetting to vote, I understand livondo or is it livongo is planning to import changaa to kibera before 27 , please please we should have prefects in langata because this can be a waterloo for raila’s presidency. where I come from we mean business and we do not want to be let down

  97. pabokenya says:

    i know tinga is ending shock waves in the spine of panua.

    woe unto pastors’ who just read fake MOU’s withouk counterchecking.

    shame on them

  98. lexx says:

    @ charles i have just comfirmed that the id no 10694331 which is being calmed to be livondo’s belongs to someone else in malava Naliaka Rhoda.Remember Livondo’s Id date of birth was indicated as 00-00-1968.

  99. Elizabeth says:

    We must make noise about this Livondo man! And we must make noise about the ballot papers being printed in UK for rigging in the elections. People you know how much PNU is tainted. Kibaki……..Moi………Gideon……….Uhuru……….Michuki the rattle snake the list is endless. These people are desperately hanging on to power to protect their ill-gotten wealth.

    RIS, Secretariat and Agwambo please come to our rescue….the Secretariat, you have made us proud this week, please do it again, I hope the Raila Intelligence Service is awake twenty four & a half hours. We have come from far, and I am not ready to have someone laugh at my face after 27th because of rigging. PNU is not supposed to win. Even if all the ghosts of the entire nation of Kenya resurrected today to vote, they will never win.

    So they must not win. Kibaki cannot in two weeks get votes from Nyanza, Rift Valley, North Eastern, Coast, Western and Nairobi. Please RIS tell me that there will be no rigging – not one that we can stop as the one I hear. We voters will be observers as well. I have offered to stay at the polling station up until the voting is finished and counting done. Please do your part, now the secretariat or the RIS….whoever is in-charge here.

    My blood is boiling since I got this message this afternoon about some rigging papers bring printed. How else am I supposed to wake up on 28th? Preaching what? Nursing my defeat and looking for a place to hide my big head? I am a proud…….. please make us proud.

  100. Auki Ollows says:


    This is funny: “I hope the Raila Intelligence Service is awake twenty four & a half hours”

    You must be drunk on Orange Juice, which is PERFECT for this season…


  101. A draft report from steadman polls showed Raila on a threatening lead before it was ”levelled” under a directive from state house, it can now be revealed .The pollster results from the raw data showed:

    Raila Odinga 56%
    Mwai Kibaki 33%
    Kalonzo 9%
    Undecided 2%

    poll Managing Director Mr Waititu,had been instructed before not to release the results untill a final decision from state house operative mainly from Mt Kenya region.
    As au recall ,during weekend , both major papers found that the figures did not tally for Nyanza, Nairobi and Rift valley. Meaning they over doctored and made mistakes in the figures they gave the newspapers editors in strict confidence.
    Mr Murage,Kagwe and Chancellor Wanjohi summorned the poll MD at the outskat ot Nairobi and told to work for their son Kibaki.Rigging is difficult now sinse people are watching everything everywhere.
    Anyway God will see his people and He is not sleeping untill we get what need as Kenyans,God bless ODM leaders and it’s supporters.

  102. kube says:

    the war has just began

  103. pabokenya says:

    things are going heyway for the police.why should they remain.


  104. pabokenya says:



  105. pabokenya says:



  106. pabokenya says:




  107. Philip says:

    Chungwa guys, let us grab every opportunity to preach the Chungwa message. Kenyans have decided that they want true change, ours is to keep the fire burning and use all our might in this last lap. PNU cannot turn the tide but we must keep the gap wide and leave no room for rigging

  108. PABLO says:

    Well done guyz this is a clear show of soliderity Let us just keep on hitting relentlessly because we dont want to be found asleep lest the Lord bypass us. I am making sure that most of the revelations we are having from this blog is sent in high speed to every ODM supporter to sensitize everybody about the the on/offgoings so that we are not caught under the belt. MAMBO BADO WE ARE THE TRUE SOLDERS FOR THE SECOND LIBERATION


  109. Njuguna Kariuki says:

    This is being reported in abunuwasi.com . So dont worry about it when it appears on Nation tommorow and in tonights news.

    THREE pollsters show that it is still a close race between ODM Presidential candidate Raila Odinga and President Mwai Kibaki.

    Since the poll is commissioned by Nation Media Group we cannot go into the nitty gritty, but we can report that in two of the polls Raila is ahead but in one Kibaki is in the lead.

    We can further report that the most significant gap is 5 percent, while in the one Kibaki is leading the difference is below O.8 percent.

  110. tnk says:

    Below are extracts from a book written by one David of Canada in 1990, the script is being religiously followed by PNU. I have paraphrased reference to be relevant locally. This is what we have to counter upto election day

    being aware of their techniques is the first step to being free of their effects

    THE ELITE AND/OR RICHEST TEN PERCENT possess more wealth than
    The important thing to realize is not just that the elite own virtually all the media, but that it is now owned by a very small handful of media moguls. The shocking truth is that the ownership of newspapers and TV stations has already been consolidated to such a staggering degree that unmanipulated news coverage has practically ceased to exist.
    Using the Media to Rig Elections
    The media’s role in undermining the function of true democracy, and especially at election time, cannot be overstated. The elite are not satisfied with infiltrating the nation’s highest political offices, nor are they satisfied with negating the effects of democracy with special interest lobbying. No, that’s not quite enough.
    Before the bottom 90% of society are even allowed to approach the polling booth, the elite take the opportunity to subject the entire population to no less than six full months of intense political conditioning in which individuals and policies that pose a threat to their wealth and power, are systematically discredited. By praising their sympathizers and discrediting and smearing their opponents, the elite have consistently and successfully used the media, to elect enough political candidates to State House and Parliament to ensure success with their future lobbying.

    Needless to say, most of the politicians running for election or reelection are doing so with funds contributed by the elite in one way or another, and of course election support translates into either payoffs for past favors, or for favors due and as yet unpaid.

    The use of the media as a political propaganda tool is old hat,

    The Billions of shillings accumulated, an unprecedented amount with which to launch a political campaign for PNU. The money was used to pay for newspaper ads, radio ads, billboard advertising, phony anti-Raila smear groups, and a massive leaflet campaign.

    Today’s Elections
    Elections are still won and lost through media manipulations. The impact of carefully designed and contrived backdrops for the carefully scripted “30 second sound bites” is well known to media manipulators who employ proven psychological tactics.
    Seeing and hearing the same news on different networks and in different newspapers automatically lends an air of authenticity and credibility to the information.
    Media Manipulation Techniques
    Restricting News Coverage to the Elite’s Version

    Controlling the “Impressions” generated

    both TV and radio stations ask their viewers and listeners to call in right after their brainwashing sessions to register their reactions to the news story.
    Supportive reactions are fed back to viewers and listeners almost immediately

    in order to maximize the effects of gerrymandering, the elite spend great sums of money canvassing the country to influence and learn leanings. In other words, it would be relatively easy to call specific households and obtain consistently predictable responses for opinion polls.

    In any event, the secret of success of this technique is to solicit public reactions immediately after serving up either misinformation, or a specially sanitized or colored version of the event

    In this way, the elite can get public support for practically any action or policy they care to carry out.

    Selling Bad Products using “Word Trickery”

    News Omissions

    Playing Down the Importance of Facts

  111. Kanyeka says:

    Another SMS guys!!!

  112. Omuto says:

    TNK, you deserve a boquet for that. Thanx for the insight. Just to place some of those extracts in their immediate context:-

    – KTN News Bulletin, especially the KTN Leo and KTN Prime, has been partially or wholly interrupted during the last one week. Whoever does this is such a daft that he interferes with the signals only at the begining of every buletin. (Can’t you smell CCK machination in this?)
    – The other stations, especially KBC and Citizen, are unaffected and if so, just as a deliberate attempt to hoodwink us into believing that the mess cuts through the entire media fraternity. This government friendly stations will make Kapondi, the controversial MOU and the leaflets propaganda to be ODM headlines, feed us with 25 minutes of Kibaki and Lucy in their usual uncouth utterances, show nothing of the Pentagon in the campain trail, not unless the attendance is way below expectation.
    – NTV on its part will play damaged ODM clips and as usual apologize to viewers “for that short misharp.”

    However blind our optimism might be, we can’t afford to be rigged out in broad daylight as we wait for an angel to come from heaven and intervene. Forget it. Time is coming, and now is the time, when true patriots will stand out for right, join in the fight, be a soldier for liberty. Kibaki imagines that wananchi arevery happy with these punda machinations.


  113. Pablo says:

    Hi Folks,

    Serously the sheng name for

    Maina is Mais,

    Adhiambo is Adhis ,

    Kariuki is Karis ,

    Otieno is Otis,

    So isnt it Logical That Raila is RAIS

    Chungwa Chungwa Chungwa! The ORANGE that is WHOLE!


    When God fights for you, no enemy of yours will win !! Amen

    Look this guyz we have to keep it up am telling you by shairing these ideas we are doing a blow job to the PUNUS/PANUS/PONOs Oopss Idont know which one but this is the only way forward let us be forwarding the same to all friends of ours both locacally and in the diaspora read on this

    “Top News: Raila 43%, Kibaki 41%, Kalonzo 10% as PNU collapses

    “Dr. Munywoki Wambua” wrote:
    Dear Mr. Oketch,

    I have seen you articulate your position on various internet lists and I hope you shall carry on with the good work. But where are your other young leaders like Kepta Ombati and Mwalimu Mati as the government continues to entrench tribalism and then stand up and say it is against it?

    I hope you shall let them know that those of us with a sane mind in the universities have info and a position;

    1. I have info that a Pollster based in Nairobi ( stead man research ) has brought out the results last Friday from all over the country;



    Leads in the following provinces
    Raila Odinga


    Nyanza, Rift Valley, Nairobi, Coast, NEP
    Mwai Kibaki


    Central, Western



    Others/ Undecided


    I would Love to see how the Kibaki debe fairs on in the cooked up results that will emerge from George Waititu and Tom Wolf (that American CIA agent).

    Please disburse this to Steadman and all the networks to ensure that we pre-empt Stead man this time round

    2. Those who have been doubting that Kibaki is presiding over Kikuyu-supremacy tribal agenda now have the following at last to reckon with; What shocks me is the arrogance of this gang even when they are seeking the vote from other people;

    The Presidential advisory Board
    Nick Barage Wanjui- Chairman – Kikuyu ( the chancellor of University of Nairobi )!
    Nat Kangethe- Member – Kikuyu
    Solomon Karanja- Kikuyu
    Peter Kanyago- Kikuyu
    George Muhoho- Kikuyu
    Titus Mbathi – ( Ed Njoroge’s Chairman)
    Ed Njoroge- Secretary – Kikuyu

    The Presidential elections Board
    Eddy Njoroge- Chairman – Kikuyu (KenGen)
    John Waweru – Kikuyu (CCK)
    Michael Waweru – Kikuyu (KRA)
    William Kirwa- Nandi ( ADC)- Kirwa’s point man
    Lee Karuri- Secretary – Kikuyu
    How come our parastatals chiefs can now get to this level?

    The Kibaki Tena Secretariat
    Lee Karuri – Director- Kikuyu
    Mr. Wang’ombe- Kikuyu
    Ms. Mary Mukindia- Kikuyu
    Prof. Macharia Munene – Kikuyu
    Ngatia Patrick – Kikuyu – Vijana
    Owino Magana- IT Luo

    Why is this, the case?
    I am getting very worried of what then Kibaki will do if won through rigging this election! That will be a total disaster!
    Supporting Party Leaders
    Nyachae- Ford P Wife Kikuyu
    Kirwa- NARC Kenya Wife Kikuyu
    Uhuru Kenyatta- KANU Kikuyu
    Wangari Maathai- Mazingira Kikuyu
    Rose Waruhiu- DP Kikuyu
    Tuju NARC Kenya Kikuyu Party
    Kombo FORD K killed the party for not seeing a head
    at the referendum
    Muite Kibugi Paul Safina Kikuyu

    So they thought we could not see through the Kikuyu agenda even after Uhuru crossed over? In 1997 Orengo remained in Ford K and won his Ugenya seat with Joe Donde and Raila was running for Presidency.

    We want certain Kikuyus to stand up for Kenya.

    3. As Okemo said in Busia yesterday (Sunday), Kikuyus must now explain why they can never vote for any other man or woman except for a fellow Kikuyu.

    Dr. Munywoki”

    Yeah hata wadokta namnagani Hakuna nafasi yao

  114. Sam Faulu says:

    Some interesting reading… Don’t know why no media house has picked this one up.


  115. odoyo oriri says:

    Waititu’s Steadman Group: the Kibaki Re-election Machine

    By Odoyo Oriri

    Some years back one-school holiday while visiting with my uncle in Nairobi, an elderly man (Mzee) visited Nairobi from upcountry to get medical treatment at Kenyatta Hospital. He was directed to my uncle’s workplace in Industrial area to Gailey & Roberts Company premises where Uncle Odipo worked as an Auditor. The Mzee enquired from the receptionist at the desk to see Mr. Martin Odipo, whom he referred to as the chief accountant, receptionist’s response was that the chief accountant was not Mr. Odipo. The name she mentioned was not Mr. Odipo. The old man did not believe that someone could be more senior than Mr. Odipo. He replied “ Mr. Odipo is more senior than the one you named’’ Later than evening I asked the Mzee if he truly believed that Mr. Odipo was more senior than the chief accountant, his answer to me was: “dume yako ndiye unashangilia” (you support only your bull”)

    Mr. Waititu may be doing the same thing my Mzee did. You serve who pays the bill or else you are ‘fired” as the American billionaire Donald Trump would say. I think that Mr. Waititu should explain to Kenyan his company relationship with President and more fully his methodology.

    Let me remind him that even in the USA, political parties conduct polls all the time but proper scientific assumption are followed, they will not hide their intentions and purposes. The latest presidential race polling results are simply ridiculous and laughable.

    True opinions of diverse and complex communities within Kenya are a scientist nightmare to access and for private group like steadman with vested interest in the outcome of the election.

    Scientists understand that poll taking in Kenya or any other sub Sahara countries are very difficult and to assume that privately funded Steadman group with ties to President Kibaki statehouse with vested interest in election outcome simply create doubt and suspicion.

    The lack of transparency; the reluctance to make a disclosure of data and complete funding sources and relationship to the statehouse should lead all of to question the results making these polls simply a mockery of true science. The November opinion polls proves this point we have been making all along that Steadman polls must be viewed as purely partisan political affair with specific vested political interest purely sway wanainchi opinion towards the President’s reelection. Steadman & funders are therefore using science in the same way the tobacco companies have done in the past. Cigarette companies funded research studies, which in the past have consistently demonstrated that cigarettes smoking do not course cancer what.

    Mr. Waititu is a smart man after brief change of tactics to deflect pressure from wanainchi’s disgust of unscientific opinion. Steadman intention is now clear; the presidential stars will keep rising till the Election Day. The logic behind Kibakis narrowing the wide earlier lead by Raila’s lead is Waititus’s Steadman scheme is two folds: to influence the perceptions of wanainchi to improve electability of the President and if cannot win, to make rigging easier and believable.

    Odoyo Oriri
    (Writer practices psychology and pastor in Cleveland Ohio)

  116. odoyo oriri says:

    Waititu’s Steadman Group: the Kibaki Re-election Machine

    By Odoyo Oriri

    Some years back one-school holiday while visiting with my uncle in Nairobi, an elderly man (Mzee) visited Nairobi from upcountry to get medical treatment at Kenyatta Hospital. He was directed to my uncle’s workplace in Industrial area to Gailey & Roberts Company premises where Uncle Odipo worked as an Auditor. The Mzee enquired from the receptionist at the desk to see Mr. Martin Odipo, whom he referred to as the chief accountant, receptionist’s response was that the chief accountant was not Mr. Odipo. The name she mentioned was not Mr. Odipo. The old man did not believe that someone could be more senior than Mr. Odipo. He replied “ Mr. Odipo is more senior than the one you named’’ Later than evening I asked the Mzee if he truly believed that Mr. Odipo was more senior than the chief accountant, his answer to me was: “dume yako ndiye unashangilia” (you support only your bull”)

    Mr. Waititu may be doing the same thing my Mzee did. You serve who pays the bill or else you are ‘fired” as the American billionaire Donald Trump would say. I think that Mr. Waititu should explain to Kenyan his company relationship with President and more fully his methodology.

    Let me remind him that even in the USA, political parties conduct polls all the time but proper scientific assumption are followed, they will not hide their intentions and purposes. The latest presidential race polling results are simply ridiculous and laughable.

    True opinions of diverse and complex communities within Kenya are a scientist nightmare to access. The steadman group with vested interest in the outcome of the election is simply being used to carry out a political agenda far from Science.

    Scientists understand that poll taking in Kenya or any other sub Sahara countries are very difficult and to assume that privately funded Steadman group with ties to President Kibaki statehouse with vested interest in election outcome simply create doubt and suspicion.

    The lack of transparency; the reluctance to make a disclosure of data and complete funding sources and relationship to the statehouse should lead all of to question the results making these polls simply a mockery of true science. The November opinion polls proves this point we have been making all along that Steadman polls must be viewed as purely partisan political affair with specific vested political interest purely sway wanainchi opinion towards the President’s reelection. Steadman & funders are therefore using science in the same way the tobacco companies have done in the past. Cigarette companies funded research studies, which in the past have consistently demonstrated that cigarettes smoking do not course cancer what.

    Mr. Waititu is a smart man after brief change of tactics to deflect pressure from wanainchi’s disgust of unscientific opinion. Steadman intention is now clear; the presidential stars will keep rising till the Election Day. The logic behind Kibakis narrowing the wide earlier lead by Raila’s lead is Waititus’s Steadman scheme is two folds: to influence the perceptions of wanainchi to improve electability of the President and if cannot win, to make rigging easier and believable.

    Odoyo Oriri
    (Writer practices psychology and pastor in Cleveland Ohio)

  117. tnk says:

    Even if Wolf wanted to pull out of steadman, chances are it will heavily tip the public against the PNU machinery. Either he will be coerced to stay or remain silent (bribe or carrot approach), and then threatened if he refuses and perhaps found to be the one “cooking” figures and possibly jailed (stick approach). His departure would fuel the sort of nasty truth that PNU is unable to accomodate so its likely that unless he has strong determination + close proximity to a safe house, his hands, feet, tongue, head and everything are totally tied up either directly or indirectly (through family or friends in the firing line).

    The other issue is on the two PNU candidates ferrying weapons to constituencies. This is a grand lesson that ODM must react to immediately. Lets not hit at the symptoms. Lets hit at the root cause. Lesson 1 – These candidates have through their networks discovered that they cannot win fairly or with too much margin of error (how many ODM candidates have exploited their grassroot connections to ensure of 1,2,3 win in their constituencies? ODM Pentagon need to crack the whip and monitor/obtain tangible on the ground results)
    Lesson 2 – lame as the actions from these two crazies is, they are “taking the initiative” to tilt the balance, (what are ODM candidates doing to completely block rigging by PNU candidates by way of education and surveying logistic barriers that may be introduced. we still hear of some candidates yet to hit the trail.)
    Lesson 3 – the despicable actions are done in the open with no fear of reprimand from authorities (police) and the PNU bosses (Kibaki included) implying it is sanctioned at some higher level as we all know.
    Lesson 4 – how many such actions have slipped attention and how do we anticipate, recognize and diffuse these?

    As for Moi support for Kibaki and his “advise” to the RV community I must say I always respect elders so I have to say well

    He fired Kibaki as VP b’coz he wasn’t performing, but he’s comfortable with him heading the country
    The economy during his reign was performing well despite donor withdrawal but Kibaki has “revamped” it,
    He warned against Kibaki being made pres when he was ushering in his Project but now hes the man for the job
    He has moles in ODM, but no he doesn’t
    Kibaki fired all RV guys in top posts, but he cares about the welfare of RV and etc
    But Raila is the kigeu geu. Right!
    If any elder displays such inconsistencies, his mental health is wanting or he is and always was an incorrigible fellow. Respect needs to be used with discretion. Which then begs the question, when a madman or crook points at a man and tells you that he trusts the man, what do you do? (this by no means implies the “fictional characters” refered to above:-)

    The man is in panic mode, he and his cohorts feared when Narc came to power that past misdeeds would resurface, but with the fallout, and corruption scandals, the comfort zone was reestablished. This time the threat is much larger with an ODM win cause the excess baggage, yes-men and corruption prone leaders are visibly absent in the line-up. Almost all are solid leaders with integrity, no window dressing characters such as ODM-K outfit (who pride themselves as being middle ground). Yes a smudge hear and there, definitely not a lot of “angels” (other than SKM in the ODM-K maybe someone should draw him with some feathers I mean wings flying out to nowhere… i digress ) but most can shake this off, whereas he and his sons possibly cannot. So what to do? One leg in the country shout as loud as possible, the other in take off mode. ODM should start preparing for post elections, if some of these guys escape out of country, we might be in just as much trouble considering the wealth and connections they have, they will try to destabilise from outside the borders. But thats for another day.

  118. Jagero says:

    tnk try to streach this weapon trhing further and realise that the purpose is to cause chaos in Western and probably other ODM strongholds and reduce the voter turn out. This way you kill two birds with one stone. 1 Reduce the ptresidential vote numbers and 2. If your heavily armed die hard supporters are the only ones who manage to vote then you may as well win. We have to counter all these advance rogging strategies. This is something Kenyans are already dying for and probably the opponents need to realise that Kenya is bigger than all of us and not take us down that path

  119. Ogwang' says:

    The claim by Mr. Francis Mwangi a night club proprietor in Uganda that he is the patron of Kenyan students studyin in Uganda is laughable. It is also unfortunate for him (Mwangi) to calim that the students in all Universities in Uganda are solidly behind the out going president (Kibaki). PNU as a party have never thought of visisting Makerere and if they did they could have seen the reality on the ground. For sure even Ugandan Students have realized that Kenyan students in Uganda are praying for nothing short of change of leadership. The fact is come 27th “PANU watashangaa”

  120. jaugenya says:

    We need not to worry about opinion polls anymore , the mother of all apinion polls is only three weeks away and steadmans and their like will be shocked beyond belief.Kenyans have decided to break the cycle of Power once and for all, wanainchi will always receive the goodies from statehouse after all it is their money but alas we have a secret ballot.

  121. solomon says:

    I noted something curious Waititu said yesterday in the Sunday Standard about opinion polls. He claimed that their last opinion poll was conducted before the nomination fiasco. That is not true. Steadman had even a question on members level of satisfaction on the nomination debacle. Infact ODM supporters were the very disappointed at 71%.

    Is Waititu trying to prepare an excuse regarding some predetermined results next Friday? Let ODM second tier politicians take him on this assertion that the nomination fiasco was not factored in the last polls.

  122. Paul Rege says:

    Am impressed with all the coments about our party ODM chungwa moja maisha bora.
    We need to go out and encourage our fellow youth to come out and vote or else they will be cursing themselves for not bringing change to this beloved country.

    The other thing I need to know onhow I can receive campaign materials. Financially, our group is ok, but we need to have similar campaign posters and few t shirts. my contacts are pregep@gmail.com We have a strong team campaigning in Coast.

    MoU with Muslims was going to make us lose votes, but am glad our leaders and fellow brothers Muslims managed to make it contained.

    I am confident we will win this election provided we concentrate on development rather than propaganda.

    Kudos Pentagon and all ODM fraternity.

    God bless Kenya, God bless ODM!!!


  123. Odieno says:

    Its coming!! Its being cooked! And you’ll read it ……Steadman’s latest. Never worry, its been cooked, panua is paying top dollar, and it will be the basis of flawed poll. They are cooking it and one man is dissatisfied. Wolf. Cooked or not, its upon our team to win.
    They have also orchestrated the move to pit pentagon against each other. When we raise issues about some members of the pentagon, we should not antagonise them, but I do know they are intelligent enough to see through these things, especially when we are this close.
    Everyone blogging, everyone texting, all change agents, please spread the change message. This is a high stakes game, and they’ll use everyone tool at their disposal including holding onto reeds! Its for us to bring the CHANGE we want, not them. 4get the steadman polls, they’ll be cooked raw!!
    I don’t know what everyone else feels, but I know we are WINNING this one. We are WINNING, we are WINNING. Tell any PUNU that we are winning, and see how pale they become…..meaning they know we are beating them.

  124. Vigo says:


    can somebody get us the raw Steadman statistics/results if there are any pliz!!!

    We are glad we’ve got the really picture of the past two polls.

    Somebody plis get us the latest raw data if the ever conducted a research.


  125. solomon says:

    All opinion pollsters shows Raila leading with a four point margin.


    Kibaki- 42%

    Consumer Insight

    Kibaki- 39%


    Kibaki- 39%


    Kibaki- 39%

    I would wish the Pentagon could ignore the results and insist that their survey shows that Raila is leading with 52%.

    Endorsing these results will be a bad strategy.

  126. Auki Ollows says:


    At this point, it is too late for the polls to tell us much. Early in the campaigns, they may show some trends. Right now, we have more reliable people on the ground in the form of nominated candidates. They will give more valuable intelligence than polls will ever give.

    Further, for the polls to be useful, the pollsters must give us a map of the areas they have gone to. It’s not enough to say that they have gone to all districts. It is said that pollsters end up at district HQs yet we know that most of Kenya is remote and inaccessible, thanks to bogus or non-existent infrastructure. Wacha campaign iongee. We know that our guys go very deep interior where media and even pollsters don’t reach.


    Right now, forget polls! Let us follow our campaigns closely and give feedback.

  127. mumias says:

    What I find interesting is how they will explain the certain drop in MK’s ratings as only last week he was cutting the gap. However I also concur with the sentiment that ODM should not endorse the polls, this would be a clever trap, because it will then show that they only endorse it when it is in their favour. I think they should come out and continue to damage its credibility, Steadman is on its last legs and any sort of endorsement will further weaken its position. Remember PNU will also attack it and query why MK has dropped in ratings given it had him at a dead heat only last week. ODM should also follow suit and that way any future poll done by Steadman will have lost credibility and public confidence.

  128. faddie says:

    i agree with everybody.i’ve just talked to a friend working at JKUAT.he tells me that he overheard one of the lecturers who is in the PNU secretariat,telling his PNU students not to worry coz Waititu & co,were paid to alter the results to make us believe that we are winning.this is meant to divert our attention while they rig.
    so guyz,don’t relax.we know we are winning with or without UNSTEADYMAN.

  129. dennis k says:

    thats right faddie pay no heed to the latest poll. they lost any credibility they had months ago. on voters card validity it is very important to check your status with the e.c.k . also to ensure that the rest of your details are recorded accurately. its a blessing that we know for a fact before hand that p.n.u have every intenon of rigging the poll. that gives us the incentive to be extra vigilant.

    here is the e.c.k link http://www.eck.or.ke/index.php/Newsflash/Revised-Voter-Register-May-2007.html please click on it. when it opens, simply key in your i.d number and all your voter info will be availed to you.

  130. Njuguna Kariuki says:

    Forget about Steadman.

    We have 20 Days to make a 60% win. These pollsters dont seem to know what they are doing. Steadman takes a direction they all follow since they dont want to challenge a supposedly market leader.

    They will all be shamed.

    After elections even the companies which use them for market research will question the results they get on their research projects since everything will be so cooked as the the final election outcome compared to the opinion polls they have been releasing.

    What value is it if they get such wild discrepancies. If all they tell us is Raila is ahead. We know that. To be relevant they can say that much.

  131. Linet says:

    I hope that if any ODM leader is asked to comment on current polls they will all say ”no comment we know we are with the people”.

  132. ismail says:

    NSIS Opinion:

    I have heard the following from reliable sources. 3 different sources.

    Rais : 56%
    Kifaki: 33%
    Kalost: 9%

    The other two sources are telling me Rais is at 53%. In terms of figures, NSIS are putting Rais at around 5Million plus, Kifaki at around 3Million, and Kalost at 1.2M. They are estimating a 10M voter turn-out. Now how the percentages match to th figures, that i do not know.

    My take is that they’ve decidd to let go of steadman. they’ve realised doctord polls don’t work. If they let go of steadman, they will be hoping for more turn-out from their gema backyard.

    As for us, its’ do or die. Let’s just assume Kifaki is at 50%, kalost is at 20%, and we are at 30%. You know how sweet the victory will then sound……!!!

    Now, let’s be serious, and piga domo proper for kivuitu’s opinion.

    chungwa moja! maisha bora!!!

  133. Pablo says:

    I think it is a brilliant idea to give a snub shoulder to upcoming polls and we in ODM to remain focused. This guyz are stupid and have got no sense of direction even after reading the mood in the country. OUR ODM Pentagon and all ODM officials should give a comment of “WE HAVE JUST STARTED OUR SERIOUS CAMPEIGN TO WINNING THE GENERAL ELECTIONS AND THE PEOPLE OF KENYA HAVE GOT A SAY IRREGARDLESS WHAT THE POLLSTARS DEPICT OR LEAN” Let us solder on hiting, hiting, hiting and hiting no sympathy we want to put PNU on the Reactionery stage till after elections and we form the gov and still make sure they are and belong to reaction. They have lacked sense of direction and no amount of their unfounded hide and seek game would snare us.


  134. kip says:

    This election was won in November 2005. That period after which kibaki should have called a truce among Kenya’s political viceroys. Now, Kip is not a superstitious man….But he has this in-born talent of sniffing out things from a million miles away. And this instinct has never failed him. like millions of other Kenyans I Scantly knew what was in store for Kibaki.


  135. Jackson Mwanyumba says:

    Focus on external forces working in favour of ODM- Kenneth Matiba is going to hive a sizeable number of votes PNU thought was under key and lock.
    Matiba should be encouraged to traverse his turf. He is an asset to ODM the same way Kalonzo is an asset to PNU.
    There is still time prop up Matiba and overcome press blackout engineered by PNU

  136. faddie says:

    pliz my dear ODMers,don’t walk around with your ID AND VOTERS CARDS in your wallets.
    i’ve got information that muggers these days don’t necessarily ask for money.they ngeta(mug)you but instead of asking for money,they search for your ID AND VOTERS’ CARDS.so guys,be warned.
    KEEP THE VOTERS’ CARDS AT HOME UNTIL THE 27TH!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!

  137. faddie says:

    guyz,i need to share something with you.
    i happen to have a friend who is very close to the establishment.actually,he is a VERY VERY VERY close ralative of Francis Muthaura.and i mean very close.
    we were talking about this issue of kibaki smelling defeat and what he told me shocked me.
    this guy happens to be privy to the way the PNU guyz are organizing things and actually i tend to believe he could be in the thick of it.anyway,i was abit surprised by how confident he seemed to be regarding the results of these elections.
    first of all,he admitted to me that things are not going on that well at the PNU secretariat.
    they have already started the blame game like they did during the referendum.
    wakina muthaura he told me are blaming the PNU secretariat for letting kibaki down.the reason being that PNU aspirants have been given resources but instead of helping kibaki,they are using them for their own compaigns thus leaving the old mzee to do it alone.
    however,there is something else that he told me vaguely and i think he never realised i picked clues from it.
    he said that they have realised things are bad for them but they aren’t going to lose this election.
    he hinted that the stakes are so high that they can’t let kibaki lose and so,
    he again told me that they are not worried about kibaki.their only worry is that kibaki will win but he wouldn’t have enough numbers to help him run the government.
    guyz idon’t know if i’m overreacting but i just wanted to share this information so that we put our antennaes on overdrive.
    REMEMBER ODMers,WE ARE NOT THERE YET!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!

  138. Njuguna Kariuki says:

    Not that they really matter but for your information RO has a 10 points lead on Kibaki as per latest Nation polls.

    Raila Kibaki Kalonzo

    Infortrack Harris 45.8% 35.9% 16.4%
    Strategic 46% 36% 17%
    Consumer Insight 42.8% 40.8% 14.1%

  139. Pablo says:

    Hata wakisema vipi we are moving what we are anticipating in the coming polls is 56% 32% and12% in regard to Raila Mwai and Olonzo respectively waache mioto we are coming with aclean sweep. Just go to ECK website and annalyse the Voter register systematically and you will getthe figures am giving basing that we only have 10m voter turnout all over.

  140. Pablo says:

    Can somebody tell Kalonzo to stop copy cutting us hawezi tosha hata ajaribu he is already a loser wahca akawalilie Mutulas, Maanzos and the likes hana chake na awache baada ya kukimbia na certificate aibu kwako bwana

  141. gahrere says:

    Agwambo should move on an let him know that we muslims are with him we r always praying or him.The remaining hypocrites and the likes o taib wataona dust on 27th.Waislamu na wacoast tunasema NAJIB BALALA HOYE RAILA HOYE ODM HOYE.The rest watajinyonga.Kazi ianze

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