Do you anticipate this and how can we handle it,could it affect our overwhelming popularity



  1. Stephen (Nairobi) says:

    Yes and no.

    If Kwach’s Board conducts fair nominations (not the kind of sham we witnessed in the NARC nominations in 2002) then there should be no worry about defections. When they are fair, even if someone defects, he/she goes away with nothing or very little – because he/she would have already been proved unpopular.

    However, if they are done shoddily like in 2002, then you should not even be worried about defections, worry more about voter apathy. I witnessed a number of places in 2002 where voter turnout in the General Election was less than 50% – these were constituencies where turnout has been between 65 – 85% in all previous elections since independence. Research has shown that the apathy was ocassioned by the imposed, unpopular candidates who stole the people’s victory during the supposed nominations.

    The easiest way for Raila to lose the presidential election is to have situations where a stronghold like say Ugenya Consitutency with a voter population of 85,000 only realises a turnout of say 45,000 in the General Elections.

    The nominations must not only be fair, but must be seen to be so. And believe me, it is not rocket science – If the Pentagon keeps off the process as they have promised and Kwach and team organise themselves well with some minimal support from ECK, say, ballot boxes etc, it is very easy to achieve. Moreover, the party has sufficient resources now.

    I look forward to total victory for Raila and ODM!!!!!

  2. Tony says:

    I fully support Stephens sentiments about the nomination process.

    The Pentagon should desist from interfering with the nomination process as it is a weeding process that gives the party credibility or destroys the parties credibility if we reflect on nomination process in Kenyan history.

    The Pentagon should also uphold from unleashing statements that undo Raila,s efforts to harmonise the situation and miscoception at the stock market.

    ODM is the future of this country…

  3. Galfen Omuse says:

    No body, Not even Kibaki of Ali could beleive that We could carry out norminationns in such apeacefull style !
    Any body defecting let him or her take his own rope and hung him or her selp.
    My Biggest problem is make sure I see Raila Through in the deal.

    Galfen Omuse
    Teso District.
    Amagoro Cons.

  4. tnk says:

    I agree with stephen

    Defections or voter apathy are dependent on the way nominations are conducted. If there is transparency, then the results will be indicative of voting patterns come the elections, but the difficult cases are when the winner is by marginal votes. The runners up will still believe that they stand a good chance and will be tempted to look for another boat. ODM should try to work with and educate all the candidates prior to the nominations, but even more importantly they should reach and educate the voters that even if their favorite candidate looses in the nomination by either a landslide or marginal votes, we still need their votes for the ODM candidate and not to be sidetracked to hop to another party. Its only the voters who can ensure candidates do not jump ship. ODM should provide an immediate forum where all candidates can endorse the winner, and if there are any serious discrepancies to provide a means to amicably resolve the issues. THis will stem any fallout especially if both the voters and the candidates understand that its all about democratic space. Any high-handedness during or after nominations and not listening to grievances will certainly lead to fall outs. Let ODM candidates and voters show Kenya and the world what maturity is all about.

    Chungwa Moja, Maisha Bora

  5. Duncan says:

    The issue of defections is a bit tricky,in my view.As it is,the PNU and ODM K are waiting in the wings to ensure that they benefit fully from the ODM spoil.
    The current high level of contenders for civic and parliamentary seats is only good for the ODM coffers.some of these contenders are government moles,cameo politicians and of course,strong candidates.we must keep the strong candidates in order to beat the incumbent thoroughly.this means that the electoral board will have to spend alot of energy in determining the strong candidates.I am all for free and fair but I also advocate a bit of compromising to ensure only the strong ones stand.
    This will be beneficial because should there be defections,it will consist mainly of weaker candidates and the collateral damage from this will not be significant enough to warrant loss of sleep.

  6. Eric B says:

    I think we also need to be realistic with this issue. There will definately be some disgruntled elements who will defect after losing in the primary nominations. Admittedly PNU and ODM-K will also encounter the same. Let us therefore not expect that everyone will stick with ODM after the nominations. However I agree that the elections should be deviod of any high-handedness or interferance from the Pentagon. This will ensure that the most popular candidate wins.

    Having said that however I wish to propose (rather selfishly but for good reason) that we retain the first two losers (somehow) in the nominations within ODM, if the candidates are more than three. How this will be worked out with them only a water-tight formula will tell.

  7. Chepkwony(Kericho) says:

    Defection could be indicative of two factors in the nomination process:
    Either the nomination is flawed with much interference form the top or
    the disatisfied losers have no ideology and political stand, was only after gaining entry to parliament for selfish purposes. If we are ODM DAMU as we claim to be, we do not anticipate any defection but you never know, it may be only that “they” have no choice but to follow the voters who are all in ODM. Let them defect for they shall find nobody to vote for them in the other side.

  8. Patrick .b. says:

    I fully agree with all my colleagues,from Steve to Eric.The issue of defection in Kenya is actually not based on ideologies but opportunities.By this i mean that no matter how good a party may have good policies and visio,the disgruntled elements will always defect.
    Secondly,as Agents for Change we would like the Pentagon to keep by their word of not interfering with election nominations but continue with campaighns as we do it door to door in our respective areas.
    Third,If a candidate is unpopular with the electorate ,please let the aspirant who comads the largest majority of voters win.I have realized that many voters dont vote because a popular candidate whose probably seen by the TOP OFFICIALS as a threat does not easily sail through.The PENTAGON should keep to their word and for sure those who’ll not make it will automatically support the winner.I think that the Pentagon has set the foundation that even candidates should adhere to.
    PNU & ODM-K should not necessarily be a threat,we are our only threat,if nominations are transparent,no matter what ticket a loser is given,he or she will not make it.Let us keep our vision going stronger.thank you all.

  9. For free and fare nomination let the Kwach team play it well, and also pentagon should keep off nomination proccess.Defectors are there let us not cheat ourselfs because there are people who are real ODM and others are just triying if they loss definetly they will be force to jump ship.But that one will not affect the popularity of ODM, we are strong and we will remain the popular party.Thank you God bless ODM and its leaders

  10. Ken Onyango - N/Jersey, USA says:

    Pentagon should stay away totally. Let Kwach team do their job squarely, fairly and transparently. All aspirants should sign a form binding them to a just result hence the spirit of competition. Delay the nomination as much as possible to frustrate opportunists.

  11. Eric B says:

    As I said earlier it is highly likely that we will witness some defections after the ODM nominations. Let us be alive to that fact. However the ODM higher echelons must try and work out a formula to retain the top three candidates and keep them in the ODM fold. Say Ms. X gets 3,000 votes, Mr Y 2,600 and Mrs Z 1,400 in that order. My suggestion is that while Ms. X automatically goes on to the next stage, the other two contenders are somehow retained within ODM. I am not quite sure how the modalities to implement this will work out but I sincerely hope that something is cooked up.

    Having said that let the Pentagon keep off these nominations completely. The nominations process will then seave who is who in the pecking order (so to speak)

  12. Baijo M.Lorowu says:

    Aspirants with no proper political stand will be tempted to defect to losing parties. However, if everyone is made to understand the importance unity as it happened during the Sept 1 presidial nominations, I do not foresee many aspirants defecting unless they were moles seeking to ride on ODM’s popularity.

    I also think the aspirants should subjected to simliar oaths as there were in the presidential nominations – since by identifying with ODM, they will have bigger roles to play in the future ODM government in other capacities different from elective leadership.

  13. paulo ragen says:

    Fallout after nomination cannot be avoided but it can be minimized. I agree with Stephen that fallout leads to voter apathy.

    There is a way around this. First ,the presidential candidate should not be seen to favor any candidate and must explicitly direct the aspirants not to use his name to influence the process. Secondly, after the nomination the presidential candidate must implore the voters to turn out to vote at least for the presidential vote, i saw many instances in 2002 especially in central province where the presidential vote total was more than the parliamentary total. This is very important because the most important vote is the presidential vote!

  14. Opapa says:

    What I am most worried about are these defectors that ODM is trying to woo to join them. If Raila’s team really have to deliver a new constitution when they take power, they need members of parliament who will not have their loyalties elsewhere. The current crop of aspirants that ODM is courting, especially currently in government or sympathetic to Moi/Kibaki, will give ODM problems in trying to enact a new constitution.

  15. V.M. Jakorende says:

    1. If the nomination process in ODM is truly democratic, then defections thereafter will be baseless. Kenyans are becoming politically mature by the day and are unlikely to follw such defectors blindly. Pentagon members must not front and impose their relatives and friends at nominations – we have seen this before in many constituencies, particularly in Nyanza.
    2. ODM should also handle those defecting to the party after PNU/ODM-K nominations with care. Defections to the party should be well publicised but the individuals must not receive any favours.

  16. OPADO says:

    Noah Ngala is a man who cry.He is agood man. Wellcome home King!From him I Opado learnt Kibaki’s bombastic abuse to the majestic people of kenya
    for the first time and as i knew him as humble leader i was wondering what was up with his excellency but icome to learn that the democratic elected president defected to mungiki regime and now calling all kenya wapumbavu!
    kwani wame ;;;;;;;mbuzi ya nani? in the name of anglo lease(nyakawa)
    The money question has been wired back but it will not add ugali in your plates?????Raila want to enter state house by back door.Agwambo is gorilla.
    Yes with Noah pentagon should go sexagon and kalonzo comes home it shall be a real orange!

  17. Otsiatso says:

    I hope that you read and pass on these suggestions. For a long time I was not a Raila supporter because he along with others in 2002 and previously imposed very unpopular people on Kenya [ex. Kibaki tosha!] This time around run the elections free, but first educate the electorate – it is ok to lose. If the elections are free then whoever defects will take zero people with him or her.
    Second, everyone should be subjected to nominations – all MPS, party officials defectors etc. – all!! [I understand about the Pentagon]
    The biggest blessing to ODM now is the PANU disorganization, wait until their nominations if they are already now at each other’s throat. Yet, you can not count on their misfortune and disorganization.

    Please, organize! organize! Kenyans have shown that they like order and reward such.

  18. Maru Kapkatet says:

    There are going to be shifts of loyalty after the nominations, for sure. There should be ongoing education and bonding of candidates to ODM. ODM should convince all candidates that they will have a role to play under an ODM government and should not burn their bridges after losing out in nominations.

    I do not know much about the person and political posture of Raphael Tuju but ODM may have more to gain by rehabilitating him and getting him to come back home to ODM. Tuju may not mean anything in terms of vote-getting but was he to defect to come back (I say come back because he is in Parliament and is a Minister courtesy of LDP, which is one of the parents of ODM) to ODM, a major psychological blow will be dealt PNU.

    While taking its manifesto to the people, ODM should not fail to seize any good opportunity to stage psychological warfare on PNU. Another good catch for ODM is Dr. Kituyi. Right now, he looks completely misplaced in PNU. His intellect, future ambitions, and leadership are stifled in PNU where the PNU drivers will shift Uhuru Kenyatta into drive next January.

    I was laughing the other day when I read about Mr. Joseph Kamotho promise to do a lot of damage to Raila’s campaign because he, Kamotho, claim to know a lot of weaknesses about Raila. Mr. Kamotho, if he wants to go back to Parliament, had better keep quiet. Raila could easily claim that Kamotho asked for leave of absence to defect to DP so that he can hoodwink his electorate into electing him and once elected will come back to ODM even by just voting along with ODM in Parliament.

    Mr. Kamotho is an easy prey for ODM. Kamotho should be intelligent enough to avoid any attacks on Raila or else he will have no more bridges to cross the river by.

    ODM should not bother trying to get Mr. Musikari Kombo. He is not a leader. When Kibaki dismantled his Cabinet in order to re-make it after the referendum, Mr. Kombo pretended to be tough giving Kibaki a number of conditions that had to be fulfilled before he (Kombo) could re-join the Cabinet.

    As it has turned out, those conditions, which Kibaki publicly agreed to, were not worth the piece of paper they were written on. Knowing Mr. Kombo well, Kibaki must have laughed saying to himself “only in your dreams, Mr. Kombo will I ever appoint as many Ambassodors, DCs, Permanent Secretaries, Heads of Parastatals as you have ordered me to”.

    Only recently, the number of appointees that Mr. Kombo was begging for had been reduced to just one. It was only recently that Mr. Kombo was begging Kibaki to appoint a lady official of the dying Ford Kenya as an ambassador.

    Kenyans have watched Mr. Kombo pretend to be the leader that he is not and in the process destroying the once-promising Ford Kenya party. ODM should not waste time on leaders like Kombo but should go for leaders of substance such as Kituyi.

    Mr. Kombo has been reduced to running errands for the real owners of PNU, an enterprise jointly owned by DP and Uhuru’s Kanu. The Kanu of yester years is long gone and is now, as Kalenjins would put it, a “KIPKUBERET”, which is house without inhabitants.

  19. Chiloba Simiyu says:

    About the debate on defectors: There is some good news. The political parties Act seems to set the stage of nominations exercises. As a strategy, ODM has to work on timing. At least to ensure that notice period is denied for those who would like to decamp.

    I also agree with the other contributers that if there is no interefence in the nominations, then the trust in the party will ferment more. At least this is what is expected from the newer generation.

    My fear is that with more defections from Government side, even with the unpopular faces, it may detract the ODM dream for change. That is how Michuki and Karume ended up in NARC.

  20. Caleb Okeyo says:

    my take on the fallout/defections after nominations should not be felt so much if:
    The nominations are done piecemeal, we start with automatic areas where nobody can reap from the spoils Nyanza coming immediately, followed by Western, Coast, N. Eastern, Nairobi, Central, Eastern and the very last day of nominations is when we take on Rift Valley.
    We must take it that the Ex- president is on the touchline with all sorts of inducements and in African politics no politician conceedes defeat in any kind of elections.

  21. Emmanuel Oyier says:

    Defections will be there, what am fearing is that if someone defects to ODM K, he will retain his orange T shirt and continue campaigning holding orange symbol. This will confuse voters and the defector may be elected in that confusion. This is likely to occur in Rift Valley, Western and Coast. We need to be very clear on our symbol otherwise we lose to Kalonzo in those provinces and Kibaki will win with a minority.
    I dont know what the party officials led by Mr. Mugambi Imanyara are doing about the orange symbol. He registered the party in 2005 with the orange as the symbol. Why is he allowing another party to use the symbol.
    Raila is the president in waiting, lets guard against confusion that will derail Raila’s ascent to power.

  22. david kioko says:


  23. ambajo says:

    this is the solution t fall out ,

    pentagon members and kwach team to call all aspiring candidates at the hq before nomination explain to them the importance of staying together given that most of them have left their jobs as parastatal heads, envoys, and provincial administrators they should be assured of getting back their jobs should they stay put in the party
    Reason being if PNU gets to power they might end up losing double

  24. dennis k says:

    the earlier we address the issue of the disgruntled in the primaries the better for us.. for have no doubt that however free and fair the nomination process shall be, sore losers shall emerge. it is only natural.these individuals, have the potential to inflict serious damage to the odm cause. fact. a pre-nomination oath to stick with odm for all candidates win or fail, in public view, should help water down any negative defection effects. odm is not about individuals. odm is a cause and a vessel for change and the betterment of kenya as a whole. having all candidates understanding and standing by it will take away any percieved credibility the losers will have hoped to gain.

  25. Auki Ollows says:

    If everything is done to ensure a free and fair process where no undue influence has been exerted, if the losers insist on leaving, let them go. They can’t hold the Orange Ship to ransom. We just move on and assume that those are the costs of democracy…


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