Steadman opinion polls
Raila “Agwambo” 53%
How should we handle these opinion polls?
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Based on this latest polls, its obvious that the biggest loser is Kalonzo. The numbers tell it all. And his strategy will become increasingly obvious. The pushing deadline for nominations is a) to wait fro fall out from ODM nominations and possibly PNU b) combine forces with PNU as a final “secret weapon” against ODM becoz he and PNU surely have no other option but to gang up together.
Best ODM strategy is to launch strategic campaigns into central and eastern province using these results to educate the masses that majority of Kenyans want change and the reason is that no matter how one looks at it, voting back Kibaki will bring back everything bad that was voted out in 2002.
At the same time ensure and consolidate all ODM supporters so that there is no fallout after nominations, and talk to all aspirants to support winners so that come January there will be wider democratic space for good governance and distribution of leadership positions.
Lets not get hot or big headed about these results and understand the seriousness and reasons for an ODM win is to bring about real change to Kenya and not about our president winning.
Please treat the results with caution. We’d like Raila to Win the actual election and not seem to be the Winning candidate that lost.
Intensify campaigns to maintain lead in other provinces and attract Eastern and Central where work needs to be done. At the end of the day what we need is a President of the Republic of Kenya and a true people’s president and not a Luo, luhya or any other tribal president.
I also think its time to bring in to the central and eastern voters the issue and reality of a displaced John Githongo and many others who fought for the common good of all. Very much like Ngugi wa Thiong’o in Kenyattas time. THis is really their son who has been thrown out in the cold because of rising above tribal allegiance and standing tall against corruption. What message do we want to give our youngsters, that they should fear to tell the truth or that they should stand up and be counted among the principled. I am sure there are voters out there in Central and Eastern who are willing and waiting for the ODM campaign, people who are principled and ready to work with the rest of Kenya, please go out there and talk to them.
The polls are jokers Raila stands 95% kenya votes for he is popular than Jesus Christ in first century! ODM’s problem is the opposition for kenya pms
are known lazy leaders corrupt &ready to buy their leadership at all cost.To
earn for doing nothing?Its our collective responsibities to destroy parliament
and use the public resource to create jobs to kenyan than feeding &lodging
better for nothing leaders in the name of democracy while wananchi has been cheated & cheated for over forty years by the same regime with defferent names nyakwa nyayo mungiki mugumo npu etc
My take is summarized in one word: CONSOLIDATE.
Kalonzo is an orange founder member. We all have our short comings. ODM-K needs to courted and be placed on ODM side before the elections. The stakes in these elections are so high for ODM to overlook any small possibility. Kamotho is another founder member of the orange easily let-off.. Wanyiri Kihoro is another reform minded personality ODM let slip through its fingers – to DP of all parties!!! Thats a pity, but the election date has not even been known. These people must be convinced to re-join the team with whatever incentives the pentagon can table. As a mass movement, the ODM must be seen to be carrying Kenyans from all over the country and our candidate must receive reasonable votes from all provinces/regions.
Remember it is ODM again Kenyattas, Mois and Kibakis. These three names have been there before and it would be foolhardy to underestimate their capabilities..Kibaki was at one time leading the polls by the same margins, just a few months ago. Roles can be reversed by just one wrong move.
ODM needs to remind itself about how one George Opong Weah went into the Liberian elections ahead in all opinion polls, only to humbled at the run-offs by Mrs. Johnson!
It will be reckless and a total let down if ODM were to loose these elections. Kazi kwenu.
From where am sitted in the cold here in Dublin, I hope no one in ODM does anything detrimental to these ratings. Keep your heads on your shoulders, keep the focus and walk straight to victory. Even if you hear the dogs barking, keep focus. It takes a very long time to win people to your side and Raila has done that since, but it takes just a second to make them all run away. Remember it took Kibaki only 2 months to lose all the good will he had in 2002.
One thing I’d want to add, don’t underestimate your opponent. As the saying goes “Don’t aim a gun at your enemy unless you are prepared to pull the trigger”. Now we have aimed the gun, we must pull the trigger. I can’t even want to imagine what would happen next year if ODM loses these elections, we’ll probably be all shipped to Uganda and leave Kenya for the Oligaths and the their cronnies.
LOSING IS NOT AN OPTION and now than ever, keep doing the right thing.
Please hit ’em hard on the secondary education contractictions and the muslim deportation fiasco. Remind them of things they never used to do but are now rushing to do. Ask them why it took them 5 years to realise some communities were as important in Kenya. Creat real doubt in the voters minds about their intentions.
My take on this is short and clear ,what we are hearing or seeing is moreless the fact, back to 2002 without Raila, Kibaki could have not seen the state house Let us be sincere in this things , let us exercise our rights why should we let Old guard to sit on us (young generations).As a young Kenyan I take this opportunity to urge all Kenyans to VOTE for change and that is RAILA AMOLO ODINGA. Thank you Am praying for Raila
KALONZO IS THE TRUE REAL SON OF ODM.HIS COMING BACK WILL BE A KNOCK OUT TO MUNGIKI REGIME LED BY UHURU MOI KIBAKI.THE FACT THAT
STEPHEN HAS STARTED TO REALIZE TO HEED TO THE VOICE OF GOD MAKES ALL KENYAN FEEL HAPPY.OUR HAPPINESS IS GIVING AS SWEET NIGHT.WE ASK GOD THE ALMIGHTY TO SEND ANGELS TO PROTECT THE PRODIGAL SON NOT TO KNEEL DOWN TO WORSHIP THE DEVIL MUNGIKI
WITH DIRTY HAND.KALONZO HAVE COURAGE AND COME HOME. AMBITION IS NOT WEAKNESS EVERY KENYAN HAVE IT!!
As ODM leadership try to woo ODM-Kalonzo and his supporters back to the mainstream ODM, Raila’s campaign machinery should strategically think ways to woo the these blocks, especially the youth to vote for him.
I believe the youth and the poor masses in these regions, if well targeted with proper campaign planning and strategy will vote for Raila since the tribal and unelectablity myths have been carefully dismantled by Raila. The youth and the marginalised masses in these Mt. kenya and Ukambani regions face the same problems other Kenyans face and need real change from the past. They should be incorporated in the next government to make it all inclusive. ODM government needs a clear majority to take Kenya to the next level we aspire to be.
….ODM leadership and campaign strategist should use these opinion polls to put more efforts in getting Raila accepted accepted by voters in all provinces including Central & Eastern. I believe the the youth and other masses can vote for Raila to get the much needed 25% in all provinces and shame those who have bashed him throughout his life. ODM should target the youth and the poor masses in Central, Esatern and parts of Rift Valley dominated by the GEMA and their Kamba cousins to support Raila for true change. Of course, we should forget areas ODM has managed to galvanise. These areas should still be vigoruosly target so that the voters are properly educated not to be influenced by anyone who may come cheating them to vote in losers.
KIBAKI TOKA, RAILA INGIA. Majority of Kenyans are increasingly becoming ODM postive!!! The rest will slowly but surely join the winning Orange revolution team.
There has never been rain without sunshine and many swallows definitely signal the advent of summer.This is just one of the several recent results that have shown Raila to be in control and is a clear demonstration that if the ODM machinery keep on their mettle then a new advent for Kenya is a very likely realisation.However the holy bible cautions that THOSE WHO THINK THEY ARE STANDING SHOULD WATCH OUT LEST THEY FALL.It wouldn be absolutely detrimental if the ODM machinery were to rest on their laurells thinking they already have victory. Keep toiling brothers and sister coz something good never comes easy and something good is worth every single struggle.GOD BLESS>
I’m equaly humbled by the polls and urge the PENTAGON to surge ahead and not to relent. The opponent has the machinery and resources to turn the tables. We are aware that they are buying the votes in ODM strongholds. Stop them MOVE around with the energy that you exhibit and let the opponent not know your strategies and the secretariates to work over drive changing tactics as often as need be. Finally, extend a hand to ours Truly STEVE to come home. His vision and those of ODM similar. Dont forget to bring on board our brothers n sisters from Eastern and Central Kenyan Provinces.
The build up is very encouraging. However it is of cruical importance that it is not only sustained but the percentage gains be increased. More effort and strategy is required in Central and Eastern despite the expected negative responses to ODM campaigns in those regions. But of even greater significance is the need to guard against actions/speeches premeditated or otherwise by the ODM Family and Supporters which might have the effect of ruining the gains made so far. In short, mine is to say to ODM….Cultivate and Consolidate and when you get the big job, dont make the same glaring mistakes that the incumbent made!
ODM supporters should handle these polls with a lot of caution. It’s easy for ODM opponents to manipulate them to induce complacency among party strategists and supporters. It’s also dangerous to lead early in the race. Remember the ‘burn-out’ effect? I would urge ODM supporters to remain vigilant as the campaign enters its most crucial phase. How come we don’t hear too much youth and women groups? And where are the ODM intellectuals to pen informed analytical articles tocounter some of the half truths I see every day in the papers? Let’s avoid sideshows and instead focus on the job at hand, that is, a decisive victory for ODM.
I have a request to all ODM and Agwambo supporters out there. Looking at the poll, I wish to say we are doing well and extend thanks to all Kenyas for that. But allow me to request that we suspend celebrations for a while. They have always blamed us for “over-celebration”. I want us to look at what we can do in those areas where the %ge is not over 70% Especially coast and Nairobi. I am pinpointing these two on the ground of their sinificance to us. Nairobi is Agwambo’s home and we should do everything within our powers to bring it to more than 80%. Look at the talk space about Kibira in the campaigns! Some may start using this in other areas “you see this guy is not popular in his backyard”. Where people know him well. Coast in home to a Pentagon member. The enemy will do everything within his power to try to make the member look weak and create panic. We know the kind of war Hon Balala has at the Coast. If we leave him alone, the sharks might just be too many. PLease I am pleading that we strategize on how to attack Coast. I will not comment much on Eastern because of obviouse reasons. Hon. Nyagah is trying but we know what uphill task he has. We need to give him moral support and appreciate the much he has done for the party. That does not mean we forget about Eatern and Central! Let us strategise on ways of increasing our presence in Eastern and Central. But NAIROBI AND COAST should be in crosshair.
Another suggestion. You see we have The Pentagon- All men. Our competitors also have nothing in their campains to show for women. I would wish to request that our campaign finds a way of creating a “Pentagon for Women”. This will not only give us advertage among our ladies, but help to give Madam Ngilu moral support and boost her standing. I would wish a situation where the “Lady Pentagon” looks as operating indipendently but in tandem with THE PENTAGON. With clear role division and specific policy issues identified for them to address in the campaigns. Bwana Admin, think more on that,it is Just my wild suggestion.
Otherwise, to the secretariat I say keep up the GOOD WORK and Maintain the Tempo. Remember the battle is just begining. DO not dance yourself lame yet. Please add more vigor. The enemy will soon lose hope. Most like will frustrated and be wild! Prepare for that.
Well, as it has always been, never underestimate your enemy. Definately, kibaki is not smiling at these very news, and I doubt whether her excellency Lucy bought todays paper. I had a chance to listen to Judy (Kibaki’s daughter) talk to Chamwada and I couldn’t help seeing why our Orange team has to move faster and smarter. They (Judys n Lucys) r not oblivious of the fact that it will be utter shame for Kibaki (read incumbent) to lose, with a combined efforts of Prof. Politics (Moi) and Uhuru Kenyatta. This is a combination of all the three past presidents (including Kibaki). It is very easy to be complacent and assume that we are already at home. This is human nature and I assure you no war is easily lost than the war preceded by complacency. So what is the way forward?
1. Let our camp be weary of the fact that the rural folk is seeing nothing of this opinion polls. We need to reach them, right in their own houses, door to door. If we are to win in Western, Nyanza, Rift Valley, N.Eastern, Nairobi and Coast Provinces then it should be a landslide win – forget about 60 or 70% my friends. We need all the rural folks to cast their ballots in the right boxes and in the biggest numbers ever seen. Even the sick should be supported from their sick beds to the ballot box and back to the beds again. Our old friends (grandparents +) should not be left home come December (I don’t know when).
2. If the government has to rig, then this will undoubtedly be in Central and part of Eastern. Can we work out a way of knowing the number of registered voters in this regions before Kivuitu is sent packing? Whoever will succeed Kivuitu and the now gone Mukele will be government friendly, and there is no doubt about that. Anything to do with the voters’ registers will be totally messed up with to compromise a “surge” in the number of voters in Kibaki friendly areas. Our watchful eyes, where are you? We know that even the ECK officials in these regions will be 100% pro-kibaki. Something should be done about this, lest fellows vote ten times each to give Kibaki a through pass.
3. Vote buying is another vice that might eat into the glory we are basking in right now. If nothing is done about this vile behaviour, then our lead will remain on papers and with Steadman and other opinion pollsters.
4. Nominations should be free and fair, but let’s watch out for impersonators and PANU moles in the ODM camp. Let the Pentagon not interfere, and let it not be too soft at the same time. Vigilance and monitoring should be our duty in this noble duty of nominations.
Having said all that, my prayer is that we venture into the deep, for that is where the harvest is. Let’s not relent in popularising ODM and Raila, if all we need is a landslide win.
Let ODM work even harder
Do not be complacent
Instead, be humbled by the polls and stay focused on wooing more voters.
How about camping in Central Province:
I believe real Kenyans who are sensible enough to see the folly of Mt. Kenya, R/Valley and Kiambu Mafia( Kibaki- Moi -Kenyatta axis also wants change as much as the rest of country.
Target youths from this area for who knows the harvest!
Watch out, there is somebody using a luo name (Oloo Obiero) spreading propaganda in the internet, that he interviewed Hon. Raila in Denver USA. The so called Obiero does not exist,it must be another Mt. Kenya, scum sucking sodomizer, whose aim is to bring tension within the pentagon. Be wary, these guys will use all kind of tricks to see that the dream of Kenyans does not come true.
The opinion polls say many things:
1:That the longer Kibaki waits before calling elections, the worse his position becomes. people may sometimes recover from sliding percentages in opinion polls, but this hardly happens when it is government sliding as there is nothing new they can possibly tell people – their failures and successes are already in the public domain…
2: That Kalonzo has officially been rendered useless in this year’s campaign. He no longer has the trump card to threaten ODM with as Raila is still 8% points ahead of their combined points. He moves to Kibaki and the Kambas will no longer see Raila as wanting their son to fail cos he will not be in the race anyway…
3: That Raila should up the tempo and avoid saying things that will take away his lead…
4: That an ODM landslide is possible – even the 70% we proclaimed at the YKR07 might be an understatement…
its good that we are supporting Raila, but please i want to know clearly about the relationship between Raila and the mercenaries. May be Raila should brief us on this. Am a PNU voter and I beleive for ODM things arent bad likewise with PNU. Mzee Kibaki for real has done a good job, I beleieve Raila can also do something but when I read about his vision there is nowhere he is talking about his constituency (Lang’ata, kibera)which i beleive will make him get to statehouse if he still dreams of getting there.
Honorable Raila, your popularity wont take you to statehouse but your people will.Lets all be one family and vote for the individual and not the party since the party will only take somebody to parliament and wont do anything for you. Wananchi am pleading with you that its time we stood for our rights lets all be united and be ready for change. Not for bad but for good.
It is very true that Raila is leading the rest. Those who do not believe are like the lot (doughting Thomases) that did not believe untill they were showm marks in the hands of Jesus. Our only prayer is that the playing field should be level and the exercise should be free and fare.Otherwise, it is Agumbo’s time and God bless him and ODM.
ODM-K is not just copying ODM but is becoming an expert in adding the half orange. i.e copy + 1 whatever ODM does and judging by the launch at Uhuru park it appears to be working or gaining ground. ODM must ensure that the strategies cannot be duplicated and reused bu ODM-K. Everything from the color dress code, to the speeeches and promises is a duplicate plus one. Let the ODM think tank start doing some homework and do some highly diplomatic damage control. Rememerb rgith now its sympahty votes being garnered by ODM-K. Its imperative that Raila and Pentagon win this election if we are to get meaningful cahnge for Kenyans. THe steadman polls do not tell it all. No arrogance please, look for votes and consolidate.
i think its time to take the campaign a notch higher so that the copy cats in PNU and ODM-K cannot just duplicate teh strategies. First is the clean man perception. We do not need to mud-sling but this holier than thou attitude needs to be curbed, there are very few successful people in Kenya who have not been in contact with some form of dirt. Secondly lets look at Mutula Kilonzo, a long time lawyer for Moi and Kanu, are we supposed to forget this? And yes they are fingers pointing at some Pentagon members, lets find some amicable method to address these issues and not sweep them under the rug, Kenyans are now listening to truth and they will be more understanding if there is some level of transparency.
Third ODM-K is basically drumming up Christian Salvation (“miracle launch”) to reach the I’m sorry to say saved brethren who at times tend to drop all manner of reason for their “own”. I won’t be surprised if at a church function some “fellow” comes up with a “prophecy”. Its time to stop underrating either PNU or ODM-K. lets put all machinery together now to release an unstoppable, effective, inimitable, high value based, Grassroots oriented, campaign. Avoid any mud slinging and unnecessary roadshow comedy and theatrics but certainly appeal to all the voters with light entertainment. Let professional entertainers such as Reddykulas or other willing support artists come up with educational themes that reinforce the ODM philosophy. Sadly ODM-K and PNU is hanging in the wings without a real strategy other that to copy and try to best. Therefore the skits should clearly state this, remember Kenya still remember and value the running style of legendary Kipchoge Keino (stay at the back and then come dashing out to the front last minute). Once out at the front, the only way to win is to increase power and widen the gap such that all other contenders have no hope of catching up. THe time for this is now and it must be maintained till and after the elections. Secondly, its now time to look into PNU for good strong and able leaders. Do not carry excess the baggage of Kanu stalwarts such as Biwott, it is better to just not have such people at all. Start in areas where there are population can be reasoned with. We have seen 85% kibaki support and this is for a reason and can drop. Otherwise SKM will beat us to it. I at this point believe any attempt to woo SKM will be perceived as weakness, its best to get the few upright PNU leaders and supporters and in the few areas where ODM-K has lukewarm support no matter how hard it appears. Revisit the strategies used and success rates and reinvent new ones. The current method right now where all supporters are trying to outshout or outdo each other in logic, fact etc is fast approaching saturation judging by the varied blogs and street conversations. SKM will slide to the “miracle” support, PNU the unelectability plus so called economic track record plus doomsday speeches. ODM has already published manifesto and vision. What now remains is the ability to reach and appeal at the very deepest level, each and every individual community and voter, by using well respected grassroots leaders. People who have and continuously impact their constituents, and not those leaders who vanish soon after elections no matter how articulate. Kibaki is already doing this, but he does not front any local face and that is a great opportunity for ODM. Kibaki is simply selfishly saying even if you do not like my associates, please put vote me back, forgetting that what Kenyans want is a collective team of professional leaders who mean what they say and will have communication channels from grassroots to parliament.
Kenyans, it is time that we elect a leader who will inspire the younger generation to take part in nation-building. Lets look back 5 years ago, we believed in the current President Kibaki, we voted for him because
-We were tired, manipulated and embarrassed (as kenyans) of the Moi Regime and disgusted at some of the things the former President did. He abused the power that the “people” gave him by voting for him
-Along came President Mwai Kibaki, an educated, politically-savvy man, who reached out to us kenyans and promised to reduce corruption, deliver answers to kenyans on the goldenberg scandal and the murder of Dr. Robert Ouko (god rest his soul), the economy under Kibaki’s rule may have improved marginally, but many questions have been left unanswered, many promises – UNDELIVERED! our current President is not healthy, he’s aged and in his retiring years.
-Kenya needs re-building, we cannot leave the re-building to a potential president in his final years, we need someone energetic, someone with a cabinet of people who want to see Kenya restored as the “TRUE PRIDE OF AFRICA”.
-I admit, as a Kenyan (i am 26 years of age), i was critical of Raila Odinga, but i beleive i as many kenyans have matured and learned to listen and after listening to Raila Odinga, I would vote for him to be the next president of kenya as he ticks all the boxes that the younger generation beleive is what will revolutionalise Kenya.
-If you read the newspapers over the last 15 years and took note of what Raila Odinga has been through, you will realise that this man is STRONG, he’s PERSISTENT and he has PRINCIPLE. these are the qualities that a president should have. after receiving a number of threats on his life, Raila still is a prominent figure in Kenya and Kenyan’s should give him a fair go!
– To President Raila : The younger generation are behind you!! we want change and we realise it wont happen within a click of a finger, we realise it will take a considerable amount of effort, but we’re ready! DO NOT DISAPPOINT us as we’re stubborn and we take disappointment very seriously. We may be happy to give you a fair go, but disappointing a generation such as ours, whose priorities are “happiness, satisfaction and proactivity” over “perseverence and stability” would not work very well on your part.
-GO RAILA, make Kenya proud and show us that you truly want to Rebuild our beloved nation.
The opinion polls are statistical analysis and predict a possible outcome of a sample. However, I would urge our leaders not to be carried away by these polls. It will be even better not to comment because your competitor, the incumbent has many tricks to manipulate this and bring you down. Sooner or later, you might see the shift towards Kibaki. Then the general population will now be told Kibaki had not yet gained grounds and now it his turn. So please be careful with these polls and ignore them while at the bottom of your heart you know that it is a pointer to the right direction.
1) As much as polls give an indication of the political atmosphere, the ODM team should not slow down and become complacent. They should strive to do above and beyond the expectations of wananchi.
2) As mentioned by D Odipo in the Eastandard Article of Oct/14/07 “Why Lang’ata could be the big barrier to State House”, http://www.eastandard.net/news/?id=1143976006.
The Members of the Pentagon should not forget their own constituencies during the campaigns as they seek to take over the State House.
kalonzo is constantly bashin Raila and ODM as well as PNU, but PNU has ignored his stand due to his perceived rating and ODM has taken a soft stance towards the man. The truth however is that this man will spoil votes just as a split opposition did. His main focus is to try to make ODM support him. Yet he is not willing to support ODM. Its a tough situation but the battle lines need to be drawn, he is not a friend and neither is ODM-K or PNU.
If Kenyans wants real change then the time is now to ensure ODM succeeds. Decisions are hard to make, and hard decision tear the heart soul and mind but we should not vote in SKM on sympathy, Kibaki on pity but ODM on the fixed position of a better country, economy and equitable resource distribution. Already we know that ODM-K is a kamba outfit and voting in this group will simply change the holders of office. PNU will just reinforce status quo. ODM is the only and real true change, we simply just cant emphasize this enough.
we have a big problem most pple cant get their names in the eck register what will happen cme elecrtion day?concerned citizen.
I think we should take them with a pinch of salt, we are dealing with very cunning characters who will stop at nothing to have their way.It is possible that they hope polls will fool us into relaxing , but we must continue running even faster until we reach the finish line.
I also hold the opinion that the Kalonzo circus on sunday was govt sponsored so as to demystify the ODM crowds.
Do not feel threatened by the comments and propaganda of PNU. The truth on the ground is that Raila Amollo Odinga will be the president of Kenya come January 2008. As at now we cannot afford to allow the PNU fellows to eat into our territories, but we have to keep on with serious campaigns countrywide.
We need to penetrate all corners of Kenya and appeal to all Kenyans to vote in change and stability.
It is apparent that they want Raila to loose the Langata parliamentary seat so that he cannot be sworn in as a president! Their main strategy has been to buy vote from ODM supporters and to divide Langata along ethnic lines! The Langata voters must therefore be on alert and anybody found buying votes should indeed be imprisoned for life.
The talks about the NSE and the Raila factor is indeed part of a bigger plot to taint the image of Raila. The reality is that some people who have been beneficiaries of money laundering or insider trading are panicking and they’re the ones Kimunya is talking for. It is most likely that the money PNU is using to campaign come from this group of people – no wonder the recent trip to London to launch their PNU chapter was composed of major players in the NSE.
There is also some propaganda going on in the Internet – where one Mr. Obiero is alleging to have had an interview with Raila on his last visit to the UK. In the above said interview, some bad things are alleged to have been said by Raila which paint the members of Pentagon as corrupt and people being used just to achieve a short term agenda! It beats logic for anybody to go to this level of character assassination and mudslinging just to confuse Kenyans into making the right decision. Kenyans must refuse to believe these morons and whatever they post on the net must be treated with the contempt it deserves. We all know the truth and will not be swayed into their dirty games and abuses.
Last but not least, I urge all well meaning Kenyans to turn out in large numbers and vote in ODM. They will indeed call us all sorts of names but nothing can stop an idea whose time has come. The warriors of light must come out and seize our enemy without any bloodshed.
ALUTA CONTINUA…………………IT’s NOT YET UHURU!
Where are my comments. i thought Raila is for free speech.
We surely should forge a head by wooing more voters. If we could have guys like Githongo coming in during this time to help us head on with this central and eastern guys it will be really a hitback to these central guys.
About Kalonzo i attended all the three rallies at PNU I was paid Ksh. 200 at ODM I went at will but at ODM-K I was just there to see things. In ODM-K rally the buses were just too many – most of those who attended were ferried to Uhuru Park.
The polls are the true things on the ground the crowds at the launch does not reflect anything especially when the crowds are ferried. Just continue with the policies if Kalonzo would not give us his manifest claiming the competitors will steal ideas – how do we trust him when in government?
READY FOR FINAL 3RD LIBERATION – GO RAILA!!
No doubt ODM is the most popular party on the ground and for sure Raila is capable of winning. However there are small problems like the ECK issues, voter buying, peoples names missing or in the wrong polling center. I checked for 4 people on ECK website, record for 3 are available but polling centers for 2 are not available. The 3rd one changed from Embakasi to Langata, record still shows Embakasi. The 4th registered this year, no records yet. Ok from the website I notice the records are as at May this year. So my question is when will they be updated? What happens to many who will not know where they stand until elections? Someone may assume they changed from upcountry to Nairobi, yet the records still show the person should vote upcountry. People need to be reminded to check their records and solve these problems before elections. May be Orange house should put centers to help people check.
It’s now official. The ODM-K group is pure copy cat! I wonder what will happen come the real voting day. What has the Pentagon done to educate its members on the Orange emblem which seems to eliccit too much confusion? Arent we out to lose big time with the confusion that will arise during the real ballot day? Can Steadman and any other goodwill opinion polster research on how far and how much people know about who’s orange is whose? My fears are so real, puting in mind that even Orengo himself confused ODM for ODM-K during the official launch of our party. This is an issue that should not just be swept under the carpet.
Can somebody come clear and enlighten Kenyans on the fact that not even in the USA do we have the NYE or any other stock exchange for that matter, stable in an electioneering year. No concrete reason has been given by any of the pentagon members to let mwananchi know that it is in order for certain things to hit a downward trend, even if the election is between an angel and another angel. Two, we are all aware (not all though) that other NSE investors are saving their money for the Safaricom IPO, thus the 200 billion downward index (or lose to go by Kimunya’s words). Please, Pentagon, educate our fellows lest some of the few non-informed ODM suppoters buy Kimunya’s lie as Gospel truth! Such are the things we are the little thorns we overlook in our foot and it will eventually kill us!
Allow me to digress a little. I have been particularly disturbed by the reckless pronouncements from the PNU side on the performance of the Nairobi Stock Exchange (NSE). Some of us happen to understand the dynamics in that market (much as Kimunya thinks we are only capable of operating in a fish market). The NSE indices are on the down turn for several factors:
1. – it is a first a normal cycle the world over that such markets will decline to some extend closer to an election and then recover significantly afterwards (if the elected government is pro-business) or decline further (if the elected government is perceived to be ‘anti-private enterprise’). This is therefore not unique to Kenya now.
2. – Closer scrutiny reveals that those who are offloading sigificant amounts of shares now (and thereby slumping the prices) are mainly the Mt Kenya elite who have acquired most of that wealth lately through some rather questionable transactions – remember Equity, East African Cables and the book-building techniques on KenGen and Kenya-Re?. It is not too outragious to contend that they are doing it deliberately to prove a point.
3. – Curiously, the so called foreign investors are not offloading the holdings in any unusual manner – naturally, these would have been the most threatened lot if the threat was real.
4. – it is a fact that the rising inflation ocassioned by increased fuel prices, and prices of basic commodities must have an impact on the market, whether there was an election or not!
5. – A good analyst will spend some time looking at the impending Safaricom IPO and it’s impact on the market. This is a Shs 34 billion transaction. Most of the people intending to invest in this stock are forced to offload some of the holdings in securities already in the market to raise the funds to invest in this ‘choice investment’. That must bring down the indices for the time being.
It is therefore ridiculous for a whole Minister of Finance to peddle some lame propaganda while in the process exposing his innate chauvinistic airs against ‘people who are only able to understand a fish market’. My take was that this is the way he perceives Luos and Luhyas who happen to be associated with fish a lot – meaning they are all damn and that’s why they are supporting ODM
For your information, these same gentlemen who understand such complex things as stock markets have now lined up to buy Telkom Kenya (as a strategic partner through a company based in France). And they will buy it for a pittance. That’s why there is the rush. Anyone who read the Eat African Standard today would have noticed how they have lined up their cronies there as the new management to facilitate the process.
They have used very dubious methods in the past to get a stake in Rift Valley Railways (RVR), the concessionaire for Kenya-Uganda railways. I am sure it is still fresh in your minds how they twisted Strive Masiyiwa’s and Zack Wazara’s arms into getting a stake in Econet Wireless before finally giving them the mobile telephone operator licence. WITH ALL THESE TACTICS, I AM FORCED TO CONCEDE THAT INDEED THEY UNDERSTAND THE CAPITAL MARKETS BETTER THAN ANYONE!!!!
Surely PNU cannot have their cake and at the same time eat it. Over last weekend a majority of PNU MPs, lead by H.E. the President said that the opinion polls showing that Raila is on the lead in the presidential race were a sham by the pollsters.
At the same time, the Finance Minister Hon. Kimunya said that Raila’s rising popularity according to the same polls had eroded investor confidence at the NSE causing a decline in the NSE combined wealth.
On Monday 15th October 2007, Mr. James Wangunyu, the 1st vice chairman at NSE was captured in the electronic media saying, Quote: “Hon. Raila Odinga is being perceived as a President by this market (NSE), but the market is questioning, what type of a President would Raila be?”
My Question: are the opinion polls to be believed only when they are used as a smear campaign against the ODM presidential candidate?
ODM SHOULD STOP ENJOYING THE SHADOW BOXING.I HAVE YOUTHS IN MY HOME MOMBASA KISAUNI. 5 OF THEM HAVENO ID OR VOTING CARDS AND IF YOU ASK THEM THEIR PREFEREABLE PRESIDENTIAL CANDIDATE THE ANSWER
IS RAILA BIEN SUR IF YOU ASK THEM HOW THEY THINK THIS WILL HAPPEN
IF THEYHAVE NO BULETS IN THE GOLDEN FINGER PISTAL THEN THEY BLAIM
THE KIBAKI ADMINISTRATION FOR ALL.I TOLD THEM THAT IWROTE LETTERS
OFFERING ROOMS TO SERVE IN COMPAINING FOR RAILA BUT THE PEOPLE
CONCERN NEVER ANSWER AS IF IM SALING OR RENTING ROOM BUT IJUST OFFERED FOR THE LOVE I HAVE FOR MY BELOVED NATION AND TO WHAT RAILA STAND FOR IN DEMOCRACY.I HAVE STARTED TO THINK THAT THERE
TRUE FORCE TO FOOL RAILA SOTHING MAKING SICKER TONIGHT THAN EVER.IF RAILA MISSED THIS CHANCE THEN WE HAVE TO WAIT FOR45YRS
MORE.I CAN LIKE TO SWITCH MY BUSSINESS TO KENYA THAN WAIST
MY TIME IN FRANCE WHERE RACISM HAS BECOME GOD ALMIGHTY THA WHEN WE WANT OUR CHILDREN TO COME AND VISIT US THEY HAVE TO BE TESTED BY BIOLOGIST LIKE CRININAL OF HOLOCOST ERA AND NOW WONDER FULL THING WANT HAPPEN IN MY COUNTRY AND THE Y YOUTHS
HAVE NO BULETS IN 007. GOD HAVE TO WORK THINGS ON OUR SIDE
BE FORE SARKOZY LEFT THE WIFE IN STARE HOUSE AS THE LAW LAND
NEEDS THAT IF MARRIEGE GO BITTER ITS THE HUSBAND TO QUIT.THE
FIRST LADY HAD CHILDREN BUT NOW THE ADN ISSUE IS A STRONGER
THORNY THAT WEMEN AND MEN FRENCH ARE DIVIDED THAT SARKOZY
MAY END UP PARKING HIS LAGGAGES TO HUNGARY!
if any one needs evidence that the opinion polls are true, kindly listen to and watch the proffessor of politics . he called odm an empty drum . well we didn’t dispute the proffesors’ nickname. but why has the proffesor taken to screaming drum, drum, drum, drum everyday and every where ?. old men should n’t be afraid of empty drums. on the other hand when a drum begins to roll , it only gains momentum . so we expect the opinion polls to rise to above 65 %. it is fun for us the youth to roll the drum. after all it is empty ,light and without excess baggage !.
The folowing was extracted from East Africa Standard, 16th October 2007. It shows indicates the real cause of decline at the NSE. The decline is not as a result of what Hon. Kimunya and Mr. Wangunyu said:
Inflation blamed for NSE decline
East Africa Standard
Published on October 16, 2007, 12:00 am
By John Oyuke
Nairobi Stock Exchange (NSE) has said the increasing cost of living in the country has largely caused the falling share prices at the bourse.
Chief Executive, Mr Chris Mwebesa, said increased inflation linked to rising costs of fuel and other basic necessities as a key factor that has led to investors selling off shares to increase their disposable income.
He said a recent survey conducted by the bourse shows that investors are disposing their shares to increase their purchasing power in response to rising prices of basic necessities and fuel and an attractive debt market.
“Prices of basics such as bread and wheat flour have gone up in recent weeks, fuelling the inflationary pressure,” Mwebesa said in a statement. He said the rising interest rate had also made the debt market more attractive than equity segment, leading to some investors liquidating their holding of equity securities and shifting their portfolio to the debt market.
“As a result there has been increased activity in debt market as opposed to the equity market,” Mwebesa observed. Mwebesa disclosed that the NSE 20-share index stood at 4,884.75 last Friday, which is a 10.30 per cent or 503.01 points drop from the 5,387.76 recorded on the first trading date of September 3, 2007.
He added that the market value declined to Sh755.62 billion from Sh813.40 billion during the same period, which represents a decline of Sh57.78 billion equivalent to 7.65 per cent. Mwebesa said the rising political temperatures had also affected the market, though at a minimum level, as some investors adopt a “wait and see attitude” in the run up to the 2007 General Election.
He explained that the market was undergoing a correction as both risk averse and risk-taking investors respond to market dynamics. “Institutional investors, mainly fund managers, have decided to hold their buy positions with a view to coming back to the market when the prices are more stable,” he said.
Mwebesa noted that there was reduced activity from foreign investors, who were holding onto their shares and not selling altogether.
Tired and retired former president D.T. Moi was reported as having said that “the Orange Democratic Movement (ODM) has now ended its political honeymoon and should brace itself for tough times ahead”
DTM should know that his honeymoon with the rift valley voters ended in 2002 when he imposed his first project upon kenyans. the project was overwhelmingly rejected. His project number two will also be trashed by kenyans, especially us…. annoyed rift valley voters.
He has lost his political clout (fimbo/ rungu ya nyayo) which he used to push us into his thinking style.
To all ODM supporters? What are you PERSONALLY doing to ENSURE that the FUTURE IS CHUNGWA MOJA? Do not just sit back and ask, what is the pentagon doing?
What are YOU doing at your INDIVIDUAL/LOCAL LEVEL. I have chosen to mobilise youths and women in my area and talked to them about the danger of selling their voters cards.
I have chosen to go blogging/SMS all the way to counter the lies and propaganda sold by the PNU pundits and politicians.
Dear ODM member, what are YOU doing at your PERSONAL level. Don’t just wait for the next rally… Don’t just wait for the pentagon…. Don’t just wait for AGWAMBO!!!
Go out of your way and DO something GOOD for ODM to show that you are truly ODM DAMU!!!
Opinion polls are just that; a reflection of opinions. Which are fickle and polls do have a huge margin of error. We are assuming if polls are conducted TODAY that would be the result.
Well the polls are nowhere in sight, the incumbent has that info far up his sleeve. It is not time to celebrate yet.
What to do -consolidate as others have said and attack the snake referred to during the ODM launch from all parts of the body. I was born and lived under Mo1 and I can tell you there is no low that this man would not be prepared to go to. We have seen clashes in the Sondu /Kericho area just an example. Kibaki , Kenyatta and CO too are prepared to go all the way to the lowest, so while thinking of strategies keep that in mind too.
I wonder about the mentality of those who are selling their voters cards. True they might need the money but they would be the same people who would just decide not to turn up and vote on D Day.
What I am doing everybody in my circle of influence has been educated on the importance of registering to vote, checking their voting status and actually voting.
The opinion polls are a true reflection of what is on the ground. While they(PNU) enters panic mode, we should brace up for real war since they have engaged cheap propaganda to scare people away from ODM. Let`s particularly be careful on the subject of MAJIMBO as they are twisting it to appear evil in the eyes of the voters. It seems also that anything happening that adversely affect the common man is being blamed on RAILA. We should be ready to stand up and defend our FINAL LIBERATION through intelligent and foolproof arguments
Two questions for the ODM family and Supporters to ponder over and about which some action needs to be taken within the remaining time-frames before DDay.
(1) How does ODM intend to counter the ongoing manipulation of the voters registers and more so in reference to Raila’s constituency of Langata.
(2) How does ODM intend to nullify the possible negative impact of the almost similar party symbols(Orange for ODM and Orange + half for ODM-K) and with specific reference to the rural folk and the not so literate voters who may be prone to manipulation?
The time to work harder has come.The ODM supporters wherever you are,its time to campaign.What Railas running mate said at Uhuru Park was that we shold go back to the grass roots as the Pentagon rounds the country.All the aspirants irrespective of your view should hold hands,campaign together with support from the current MP, and Civic Leaders just the way Pentagon did then sell ODM’s vision to the people.
We heard the other day our Brother Kalonzo saying that ODM stole their vision.As a christian,he should seek to speak the truth and stop tarnishing peoples name.He speaks as if he’s a Govenments project.If he’s not then he should stop mad slinging.
So,aspirants hsould remain on the ground as the Pentagon traverses the country and especially Eastern and Central
Reflect upon the polls and see how to consolidate them. My humble observation lies in the consistency of information and the ideology held by all the pentagon members…let them not waver and appear inconsistent. On the Majimbo issue alone, votes can be raked in if proper explations are done to the public. Let Ruto, Mudavadi and Raila himself pass this concept in three days consectively in ptint and electronic media…people will listen and once they start seeing the logic behind the idea, Balala, Joe, Anyang’ and others can pick from there.
As for western Kenya, Mudavadi needs to go and camp in the small/hidden constituencies like Khwisero, Butere, Matungu,Sirisia,Interior parts of Lurambi, Matungu, Teso,Bumula,Kimilili, Malava,Butula,Nambale, and in other areas where the road network is not as good. Not many people are getting there and bett Kibaki will NOT!
LET the youth for Raila penetrate all institutions of higher learning and recruit youth who will in-turn be ambassodors…they can mobilise communities for rallies.
The opinion polls only highlights the long road we have to travel before victory. Do not tire.
Try to ignore the polls and concentrate on campaigns. Intensify your campaigns. The polls might be twisted later to your disadvantage, the Kikuyu tactics. They might start pushing them higher to pass you to confuse Kenyans. I urge you not to comment on them. Increase your campaigns. Your pillar to winning this election should be based on: tribalism (sacking many kalenjins), constitution, majimbo, corruption and insecurity (North Eastern). These will push this guy out completely.
I think it is needless trying to lure Kalonzo´s ODM Kenya to support us.It also makes little sense to spend alot of time in PNU strongholds. Nyanza Province for example should not be a priority at this time. Let´s improve our points in Rift Valley from 66 to atleast 80, work very hard in Coast Province as well as Western, Nairobi, Eastern and the North Eastern. Easterners still have no candidate to support by principles, Infact, even wananchi from central Province haven´t been sold any comprehensive political idea for their future. But my point is, that Central Province and Nyanza should not be an ODM priority.
it is good with result.i will advise ODM men to work day &night hard tofish out this arrogant man [MR.KIBAKI].We dont know how it will be with this KUMBAFU,MAFI YA KUKU President.?
We all accept MAJIMBO as good system of go’nce.but adjust on creating the awereness to the common man.Change the terminology but the same thing in place.
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