This entry was posted on Monday, October 1st, 2007 at 7:22 am and is filed under Opinion Polls. You can follow any responses to this entry through the RSS 2.0 feed.
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Its good that Mr.Raila and ODM is leading but this should not blind us
we have to work in the regions where we scored poorly, especially N
Its good that Mr.Raila and ODM is leading but this should not blind us
we have to work in the regions where we scored poorly, especially in Central and Eastern provinces where we know Kibaki is leading and provinces like Coast and North Esatern.
It is a good start, but I think we should be wary. The opponents will soon pay the polsters to start giving some funy results. When you cry foul they will have ground for challenge and depict us negatively.
I strongly request that every effort be done to bring Mme Ngilu on board. It will give more impetus. Otherwise it is good start.
Do update the “home” regularly and may be change format. It should be quick click and topics displayed on the Margin. You know many of our people have little knowhow about internet back home, but they should walk into a cyber and get most in a shortwhile
Keep up the good work. All out there please send mails, sms, any coms to other friends to Visit this site, GO NAD VOTE, Campaign and Each to bring two others to vote for change. IT IS TIME FOR CHANGE.
Ask those whose claim there has been development if they can reach Eldoret, Kericho Western etc by road in a non-4WD
The recent survey is good for ODM and it should give us impetus to go forward into all the areas where we scored negatively and still excite the areas where we excelled into higher vote margins.The PNU campaign team is highly bankrolled and they are going to shake the country with their money but come election day we know where we are voting.ODM keep the flag higher,you are riding on the crest of a massive wave for a better and more prosperous Kenya!!
I think that the steadman pole accurately reflects the disatisfaction of the Kenyan Voter with the tribal politics of Mwai Kibaki. The dissapointments of Kenyans lie in the broken promises, attack on free media, rise in insecurity and the inability to effectually fight corruption.
Kibaki must go and will go. As a Kikuyu and foremost a Kenyan, I support Raila Odinga.
I agree that is a marvellous start, but the race is not yet won. Mzee Raila should work more harder and concentrate on development issues, Focus his campaign vision on problems facing kenyans like the skyrocketing of essential commodities prices, constitution and should not counter attack PNU hypocrites whenever they talk ill about him.He should openly tell ODM supporters in Kibera to stop attacking government puppets campaigning in the region.If Moi tries to link him with the 1982 coup, he should scoff at him and ask how can someone appoint a coup master minder into his cabinet? (Moi appointed Hon. Raila as energy minister )This might earn him some more sympathy votes.People at the coast want a Federal state (majimbo), Hon Raila should promise them that. Agwambo should frequently visit NEP, Kissi land, Malindi, Kwale,Lodwar and Diani Ukunda because these areas have the so called hanging votes. I was in Kenya for holidays in August and to my dismay, the prices of essential commodities like sugar, milk ,bread, soap etc were more expensive than in Germany. And yet they are talking about economic recorvery, the gova should not fool Kenyans.
The good part is that most of the goverment members agreed with it and said that it was a wake up call for them. We should therefore work harder to have a big gap of about 10-20 percent within the next two weeks.
ODM should also work hader and share their dream that they have for this country within their next campaigns. and secure more votes and peoples opinions. I guess there is also a big number of voters who are undecided and this are the ones whom the campaigns should focus on to incline that rate.
Convine them and win them.
THAT THE TRUE POSITION ON THE GROUND,AND HOW INTERESTING IT IS THAT WE DID ASMALL ARITHMETIC IN THE OFFICE AWEEK BEFORE AND IT CAME VERY CLOSE TO THE STEADMAN RESULTS.EVEN DURING THE REFERANDUM MY SURVEY WAS EXACT TO THE MARK.GO GO ODM BUT LET NONE OF THE PENTAGON MEMBERS RESPOND TO THIS(REFER TO MCJAIRO)
I want to thank the steadman opinion polls for telling us nothing but the truth. I am very happy that at long last Kenyans are very ready for the change that ODM team is planning to bring in our country apart from afew blind loosers who want to waste their votes.
I would like to form a group that will campaign as AKINA MAMA NA RAILA. What steps can I TAKE?
Raila should concentrate on his plans and leave those who waste time to continue. I promise to vote for ODM coz am fed up of the current gorva.
Please try and teach all Kenyans about the ODM symbol. Let them be aware of Kalonzo’s tactics of confusing Kenyans. Sisitizeni kwa kila kampeini tafadhali.
It was a wake up call for the pentagon and us ODM members. We need to work brethren and raise it to 70%. So please wana ODM tafadhali msilale. Amkeni kumekucha kwani hawa wanafiki na wafisadi lazima tuwasambaratishe!
Let us make this country the paradise it was intended in Africa!
Go thence and preach the good news of ODM, baptise them in the name of the party, the pentagon and supporters. Amen
i think we should not start celebrating cause we hve another 2 months go for maintaing the 9% gap which will not be easy considering that its a battle with the incubant president, with all the resources in there disposal.go on mweshimiwa we have your back.
The steadman poll is a great motivation, all we need to do is to focus, educate and contunue to popularise ODM. We need not to relax we ought to keep vigil and educate the voters the difference between the ODM orange symbol and the ODM- K symbol especially in the mashinani level not overlooking the city. I have a hunch that this is one of the things that Kalozo may wish to use as a weapon of confusion during election period. Please look into the SYMBOL ISSUE CRITICALLY TO AVOID US LOOSING SOME OF OUR VOTES TO ODM-K. God bless ODM
Raila has done quite well so far. However, Raila needs to stop antagonising foes by claiming that the like of Moi will face prosecution. In as much as Moi drip-dried Kenya economically but we must not fail to realise that kenyans do not think like the westerners. Therefore threats of prosecuting Moi will make the latter be considered as a political martyr at the expense of Raila. Raila should focus more on what ODM has in store for kenyans and should also keep on reminding kenyans about chameleon without being abusive. Maybe in ODM rallies they should play the song
“Ewe wakenya musiwe kama kinyonga, kazi ya kinyonga ni kujibadilisha……”
A song like this will have more impact than using plain foul language. Further, Raila should ignore unfocussed simpletons like the likes of Nyachae, Tuju, Mwakere, Kombo among a host of others. By ignoring them, he’ll deny them the attention they seek for themselves by hurling abuses at him.
Go Raila Go!
The 9% lead over Kibaki in the recent poll results by Steadman, translates into about 1,400,000 registered voters plus/minus about 2% sampling error for a sample size of 2,000. If 60% of registered voters cast their votes, this lead would translate into about 840,000 votes if the elections were held today.
With two or so months to elections, my humble opinion is that we in ODM with Hon. Raila and The Pentagon at the battle front, should not hesitate to put this into proper perspective to Kenyans at large. We must emphasize to Kenyans that the difference is almost unassailable with only two months to go unless massive rigging by the government takes place. We have faith in Kenyans and they are unlikely to change their opininion en-masse during the remaining time.
Moreover, Raila and ODM are starting the campaigns at poll position.
GOD BLESS YOU ALL.
AS FOR KIBAKI PLEASE ACCEPT DEFEAT WHEN THE TIME COMES AND DO NOT DRIVE THE COUNTRY INTO CHAOS AND ANARCHY
I’m a huge fan of the Hon. Raila and fully support his bid. I however request that we do not get over excited by the polls…let’s not over play them. Let’s focus on issues and the campaign
When Steadman polls showed Raila trailing Obako, ODM cried foul. The CEO was throughly critiqued, insulted, and the methdology was questioned. What is it about it now that makes it more legitimate than last time?
It is meanignless but for those who think it means something – keep your eyes focused on the prize and not such distractions.
9% is not a margin we can afford to be comfortable about especially when u consider that rigging by any African incumbent(esp one who’s losing)is almost guaranteed.
I also think that the votes that are up for grabs are not so much those in Kibaki’s strongholds but rather Kalonzo’s especially those outside Kamba land.We’ll only ignore this fact at our own peril coz i don’t believe his supporters are really strong in their conviction that he’ll win or in what he’s advocating.These fence-sitters should be pushed over into the Raila camp.
Rift-valley is what i have in mind
i want to tell Raila Odinga that he has the Muslim Votes with him We will vote for him en masse coz never have we been treated like alliens in our own country just coz we are muslims and we wont accept cheap tokens beind dished out by the government pliz soldier on we got ur back it will be kenya versus central and the elite versus the mwananchi coz we dont encourage dynasties
The latest opinion polls are alarming.PNU has gained some points while ODM has lost ground.This is a wake up call to ODM.For some times now I have been concerned that ODM has not been campaigning vigorously.We should it the ground and start campaigning again.Particularly more unnerving is that Raila AKA Agwambo AKA tinga AKA Hammer has been missing in action.ODM needs to hit the ground if we are to consolidate the lead
I know it is a true reflection of what is on the ground. It is scientific and logical. However, we need not to be comfortable with the results. Lets urge all ODMists to be aggressive until we reach the destination-The State House- and form a government that is not biased and lets all including wanjiku feel the change.
I think the latest STEADMAN polls are worrying to some extent.
Part of this was caused by splitting the campign teams to three areas.The campiagn must be done with all pentagon being there.If you leave Musalia and Ruto in various other sections, it doesn’t help so much.
Let all Pentagon especially Raila be with campaign teams everywhere.Many of our prospective MP and outgoing MPS must be present to make campigns vigorous.
Start with a thunderous campign in Kisumu…Then in Kakamega…Then In tononoka…Kisha Kisii..Kisha Masaai Land…Then Samburu/Turkana land…Finally In eldoret ama Kericho…
Uhuru park will have to wait for final election days…
I am sure that we will win this time kenyans are tired of the same treatment that we got from fomer PResident Moi and Kenyatta its time for change and as all supporters of ODM will agree that Raila Odinga is the man who will bring the change that Kenyans require and need to sustain a new fast moving Economy and to bring Kenyans together as one. He is the one who can streamline all by showing us that Kenya does not only belong to one tribe but to more than 42 tribes. Hongera Baba yetu we are behind you 101% and we are praying for your Victory make us proud, compain vigorously usilale.
Our Party,ODM, seems to have not realized the tricks that our main rival, PNU are putting place. Its clear that some politically correct individuals met a senior official- Waititu- of the Steadman Group. Its alleged that the President was part of the team. What was discussed is about bringing the ODM party down.
It is said that among the plans; was to force Waititu to bring Kalonzo number two, hence put Raila number three. A senior official in the Kibaki compain team confirmed to us this issue.
For instance, the previous Polls, done last week, Raila was almost 61 percent.
Some source among the junior officers on grassroots, its believed that ODM is still most popular. Thsi means that we should have a new independent reserch firm on Polls.
Meanwhile, a few journalists who have this exclusive story are believed to be pro Kibaki and can’t publish it. The others, who are said to be neutral cant publish the story because their papers are pro Kibaki, and their editorial team wont let it go through.
However, its not clear what Waititu was promised. Some claim he received threats of being snatched the permission. More investigations have to be done.
A LETTER TO ALL REFORMERS SINCE ALL SUPPORTERS OF ODM ARE TRUE REFORMISTS.
Allow me to tell you guys that the latest steadman opinion poll was really doctored, Infact it did not come as a surprise to any of the ardent and die hard supporters of our team. Read and tell me if you endorse my humble letter to Steadman.
Let me tell you that we have known your game ever since you started conducting your so called “opinion polls”. Infact the strategy and method of research including sampling procedures and reasons for your preference of a certain sampling method to the rest you have never divulged to the readers in whose interest you purport to conduct the same. Imagine all these happening in a seemingly diversified society as you know we have in Kenya, Mr. Wolf, don´t assume that Kenya is such developed countries as the U.S. where you wake up choose a sampling element using probability or accidental method then go to sleep satisfied that you have all the data. Can you for example, tell us how you sample the nomadic communities who contribute quite a big voting block in Kenya? Do you categorise them with other settled people given the formers economic lifestyle of moving from place to place without considering geographical boundaries in search of pasture? As a sociology student majoring in research and offcourse opinion polls being my main interest. I beg you to always give us indepth structure and methodology of your research so that it can be verified and falsified to prove its reliability and validity hence be able to be declared scientific.
Whatever you show in your opinion polls, we are strongly convinced that THE PEOPLES PRESIDENT is leading and just give us 5 weeks from now, you will be embarrased at the amount of intimidation ODM supporters who stand at nothing less than 56% of the Kenyas voters will show you. People (enterprenuers) will shy away from contracting your company to perform for them research because they will not have known that you were manipulating the opinion poll results, but they will reject your company as being incompetent and thus being incapable to reach out to all their prospective clients to know either what they want or what they think about their products. We know you still want to manipulate the opinion even more but we can only wish you a good luck, but the advice to you stands which you should not regret that no one generously extended to you.
To ODM SUPPORTERS I know you can never be swayed by these guys with their opinion polls, and all of you know too well that if there is any research group to be rellied upon then its nothing short of STRATEGIC RESEARCH. Their method is quite clear, the variation and they don´t have such a dodgy language as used by steadman (“after the closure of voters register, we have resolved to sampling as per the registered voters in a province”) Can you believe this crap!!! besides, their sampling figures is quite high thus reducing the error margin. I don´t say that they are Angels NO what I´m saying is that you can far much more bank on them as compared to the likes of steadman and others.
Raila and ODM please go ahead and shake the country as you have promised. Show these guys that dust really exist because my philosophy is that THE DUSTIER THE GAP, THE WIDER IT GETS.
GO ALL PARLIAMENTARY CANDIDATES,
GO ALL CIVIC CANDIDATES,
GO ALL REFORMERS AND SUPPORTERS.
There is no stopping untill we reach the ballot.
The field is ours, the whistle has been blown and the final lap is ending.
ODM we love you keep on keeping on. Hammer those points tell Kibaki. We do not want a 81 old to lead Kenya. We have sharp brains which should not go to waste because of Karume, Moi, Kibaki, Nyachae and all those are stuck in power. We need real change. Kibaki has had his share. Raila go go go go go go Zaidi.
Agwambo go go go go go Zaidi we are behind you.
We need to keep campaigning. Another tsunami, thunder, storm we need those emotional languages to sweep the euphora. Raila we know you for this. It is you chance now so do it. We are with you.
POLLSTER ANALYSIS- WAY FORWARD FOR ODM:
This sensitivity analysis has attempted to use the most pessimistic opinion poll results of the last 8 weeks (Sept 29th to Nov 23rd) from Consumer insight, a company engaged by the Nation media group to conduct weekly presidential polls. It has consistently given ODM and Raila the worst results. It, however, offers the best opportunity for us to use its data to plan so as to get maximum gain. It is mean to help ODM move forward, by identifying the most productive areas to focus its campaign and strength on in the next few weeks. BECAUSE WE MUST WIN BY MAJORITY VOTES AND SEATS.
This analysis has the following conclusions and way forward. It is supported by graphs from which the conclusions have been drawn.
1. Out of any score for ODM, about 11 comes from R Valley, 1 from Eastern, 1 Central, 12 Nyanza, 8 Western, 4 from Nairobi, 4 from Coast and 1.3 from North Eastern. This gives us a stable 42% at any given time. We can pick another upto 15% from the zones where we oscillate most.
2. Western, Nyanza, North Eastern and Rift Valley earn ODM a safe % above 50% of voters in the respective provinces. These should be maintained for the mandatory requirement of 25% score in at least 5 provinces. We should focus on encouraging our supporters to vote, and ensure voter turnout is 99%. People should be repeatedly told to spend Xmas vacation at their voting areas, to avoid traffic hitch experienced every year at and after Xmas. We should tell them to be ready to sacrifice and vote, and thereafter make traveling plans. It was observed that during the nominations, many didi not turn up to vote; this scenario should not be repeated in the final polls.
3. The Nairobi % is the most inconsistent in %, sometimes exceeding 50% and sometimes coming below 50%.
4. The points we get from each province is most stable in Western, Nyanza and Central; and relatively stable in North eastern. They are most unstable/ oscillate most in R Valley, Nairobi and Coast. The points we lose weekly or fortnightly are often picked by Kibaki and PNU
5. We have the biggest chance to improve our performance and add extra marks from Rift valley, Eastern, Nairobi and Coast, where we can earn upto 5.8, 1.9, 2 and 0.8 respectively.
WE SHOULD CONDUCT A SERIES OF HIGH PROFILE CAMPAIGNS IN RIFT VALLEY, EASTERN, NAIROBI AND COAST PROVINCES, ESPECIALLY IN THE RURAL AREAS. THIS WILL BOOST OUR SCORE BY AT LEAST 5 POINTS. THIS IS IMPORTANT AND URGENT AS A MORALE BOOSTER TO OUR RURAL FOLLOWERS.
I qwish all ODM supporters success in theor efforts to get more followers. WE wish our captain the best in this final lap- last 4 weeks.
Good analysis daktari,
Have you sent this to this blog’s gmail? Thanks
Does somebody from Raila 07 read this blog. I am getting worried that nothing seems to go on. Raila should stop tiring at the last minute. Where is Railas Energy? I am concerned.
the race is not yet over . remember our opp. are not asleep.with the team spirit that you have potraid pleaase kindly pull up your socks,we the constituens are witth you .we know some your mps are weak but as a kg2 teacher let there be astrong trainingand propper campaing in their respective areas.iam praying for you and the team. remember story of david & the philistines.
ASANTE AGWAMBO & THE TEAM.
RAILA IS WINNING
ODMers this year, we want it! Personally when I want something, and I want it so badly, I go after it, not with bear hands but with a hammer, and I make sure that I get it and bring it home. You with me? Yes this time we at ODM have resolved to go for it and we are going to win. Period.
The opinion polls clearly and truely express the disatisfaction of we kenyans in the president.He has failed to fight corruption,insecurity,income disperities,beurocracy in bussiness foor example cheating kenyans tha they are importing sugar from somali and yet kenyans produce more sugar than somali,faild to develop the infrastructure and equal distribution of national resources basing his factors on nepotism.HE SHOULD STOP PROMISING US HEAVEN ON EARTH ,WHY DID IT NOT HAPPEN IN THE PAST FIVE YEAR TERM?
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